Macro wise, very high correlation in allocations and perspectives across the majors which represents a high risk to asset markets. If we do hit unexpected problems, volatility could spike up in 2014 due to this herding phenomena, be warned. There is little or no downside risks priced into this market on a macro level.
Here an ML pitch against the macro bear case. They make their case for ye 2014 target of 2000 SP500.
Yes, i agree its a distinct possibility this 2000 target being achieved but at what risk to the downside and how selective will this new index high be?
Even if the sp500 hits the 2000 level many will fail to participate in this wave of the rally as selectivity is likely to increase not decrease from here.
And here a 2013 earnings retrospective.
To be continued.
Rich