Although last Thursday was an impressive disappoint for US job creation it has not stuck. Technical levels have held once again and yesterday some equity markets even managed new breakout highs. For my book ive taken hedges away again on the sp500. Currencies wise, if it were not for elections in the UK and the ever present Greek concerns both the GBP and Euro would be considerably stronger vs the US$.
Without any more delay here the Swiss team latest:
Its a good useful report if a little shorter than usual.
The take aways of US indexes continuation with out performance of some European & EM indexes looks high likely to me also. The US$ is key to the materials theme as well as the European out performance. Too much strength too fast from the Euro would not assist the European equities but the breakouts should nonetheless occur on the channel of better macro data in the pipeline.
No matter whether sterling is strong or weak the domestic economy is performing very strongly. If the US$ index weakens new highs for the ftse100 could be impressive indeed and even propel to the alpha performer in major markets. If the US$ stays at an elevated level the Ftse100 should still breakout but her commodity themes would hold her back from being an out performer.
And here Fitzpatrick taking a very rightfully deserved end q1 victory lap here. Richly deserved as he got a near perfect “royal flush” of a set of forecasts. He hasn’t always nailed his calls so neatly but q1 2015 is one of his sweet success. And f the ones that haven’t yet come true, who can doubt his 130 usdjpy forecast? He records the triumph here:
And here the GS team with their usual weekly tech view:
Of the high conviction trades we have 1) Short gbpusd pair 2) Long eurostoxx50 3) Short gold 4) Long Brent
Of the four the short gbpusd appears the weakest at present. Their target is 1.43. The inability of sterling to get above the 1.50 level is increasing the danger to the downside. A break of 1.472 would invite a shift momentum downward. The range 1.472 to 1.50 crucial.
Continuing these FX themes here CS with their macro technical view of the major pairs and continued long usd position.
And here an excellent equity tech report from GS:
A lot to go through there.
And here with equally a lot detail to go through an excellent UBS report on macro markets:
I will update this with more reports and comment later today.
All the best
Rich