Volatility rising and widening across asset classes internationally now.
Its all part of the normal historic trend of rising volatility pre a trend change, imo. I wouldn’t go aggressively short yet but it was correct to move to a high cash level as of a month or so ago.
Here a few updates:
Firstly GS:
Few high conviction trades but interestingly with a seasonal play (long) on the Soybeans. How long will it be before we see the first high conviction short trades on equities from GS?
Secondly Yardeni. Here a large update of the various Yardeni briefings:
& again as an update:
Here on equities:
And here on Corp profits:
And here on bullbear ratios:
And here on Gold:
And here the latest CFTC.
The dollar looks cheap to me technically and macro wise around these levels given price and positioning. Parity with the euro seems very reasonable to me in the near term. On the longer term the less periphery participants there are in the euro the better (in terms of making for a higher euro). On the longer term im becoming bullish the euro but in a year’s time or so. Near and medium term expect the lows to be tested (and likely surpassed, as a high probability).
And here
And here RB with a big tech report:
And here the usual macro report:
All the best
Rich