The market risk on rally continues though as a part of the rally the team forecasting a near term top before continuation, classic ABC.
Oil appears to have bottomed as have many commodities and commodity fx. Gold appears likely near term capped for now at her recent resistance 1250 to 1270.
Currencies wise, the gbp the greatest moves last week, to the down side. Macro wise it will be fascinating how current account deficit fairs. I.e. might the weaker currency be beneficial or rather where is the tipping point where investment flows are negatively impacted by sustained weakness and brexist discussions. These are the issues for sterling. The eurusd paid drift around, jpy remains a safe heaven play for now.
Here the Swiss team:
And here Fitzpatrick:
He maintains, like GS that we do not have a trend change as yet. So far of the majors we have UBS, CS and JPMorgan clearly advising clients that we have recorded a trend change and that this move is an ABC corrective multi week rally whereas GS and CB are taking the other side and maintaining a risk correction which should not dent the continuation of the US recovery. We have a market and this is very healthy. We should see some price exploration on both sides before this is concluded. But in any case this volatility with volume = excellent short term trading opportunities so for the first time in years we have great trading markets.
As an aside, there are so many money supply similarities to the 1970s albeit without official price inflation, for now. Imo, the equity index moves of the 1970s are relevant for what we might see in the coming years. So far, only US aside, we can already see these range type price patterns across world equity indexes.
And here CS with some technical charts, remaining short:
And here StandardC, remaining long, just:
And here SC on FX, pre the gbp slump:
And here the usual MS FX weekly report:
Also playing the ABC correction but from FX risk pairs. Trying to make sense of the eurusd.. Not an easy pair at present. Neutral a reasonable call for now, imo.
Kindest regards to all.
Rich
P.S. I have 2 weeks to go until “DDay”, the birth of our first child. Hopefully all goes smoothly.