To start off with a great report here from MS wealth re macro and mkt comments feeding into their allocation models.
Note “S&P 500 is 23.8, which is 44.4% above its long-term average of 16.5″.
A useful report here from CS wealth. They remain bullish equities and make some equity picks here in this report. Cyclical stocks with a bias to tech inc Ciscos and Siemens.
They are surprisingly concerned on the ftse100 index but the concern is focused on technical MA issues and price chart pattern. Looking at the correlating instruments and indexes I tend to disagree for now. )I rather think its a relative buy, from a trading perspective but agree medium term if this doesn’t reverse its weakness).
Here below is a report from the 2nd of Dec. Its not a bad report but shows the issue of the pure price technical analysis in a nutshell. The report provides a nice price chart of the sp500 wedge with the breakdown area being the 1800 level to determine if more price weakness/correction was likely to follow. We got these lower price points this week all the way down to 1780 sp500 cash. And of course, once the stops were taken up we marched again. Its classic trading price action. This market is a low volume market still populated by institutions etc. There is very little real momentum so stops are always hunted down and price tech traders caught. Its been like this for the last 3 to 4 years. Whether it continues we cannot say but probably wise to assume it will sustain until it materially doesn’t!
Here the latest CS wealth weekly report on global asset markets. They remain pro cyclical and even pick out material and mining stocks, one of the most unloved sectors, as being a 2014 out perform. If we are in the end game of this stage of the cyclical bull market history suggests it could likely end with the material and mining sectors out performing as they usually do in end game moves. But against this we have deflation in many areas and the fed about to taper, eventually. This bull market could well be different from other historic bull markets due to how it has been created by non standard monetary means.
Here their daily report from Friday.
And, as it doesn’t fit neatly anywhere else, here BOAML picking up on the Bitcoin asset class. Please recall its globally a $14bn asset market. For comparison Samsung, as one corporate example, spends more each year on its marketing budget alone.
Rich