This post will be updated through the morning so please keep checking for updates guys.
Volatility has certainly increased in the last month or so and many instrument continue to look for trend direction here. Seasonally we are fast approaching the end of the inflow tail winds to equities which usually becomes a headwind once we step into the Month of May. Its a good time to take a multi-disaplined approach to reviewing where we are and how this maps against your own book of positions.
Here the CS cross asset chart pack which is the perfect way to start this run through:
Note the MSCI EM index back to a 1000, no signs of a breakout yet. They remain bullish ftse mib! We have got the break of 13995 Nik225, albeit not a deep one. Its touch and go on this one as is the usdjpy.
Here the regular CS wealth team’s latest weekly report:
Everyone seems neutral on gold for now. If we get another range and distribution historic vol will flat line on a 6 month window. An asymmetric trade window may open up on gold if that scenario unfolds. Lets see on that. I’ll be surprised but every cloud can have a golden lining if that’s the case. Their stock selections are very tactical playing into Easter holiday retail strength. I may suggest a symptom of a lack of faith on the forward.
We haven’t heard from the JPCaz team for a while on the european equity markets. Here, from yesterday they provide a good update. Earnings expectations for Q1 have collapsed with yoy falls expected by analysts now. Their logic goes it wouldn’t be hard to exceed expectations. I agree but did price ever adjust to the downside on these lowered expectations? No they did not so its hard to read this too bullishly.
Anyway here their report:
Here the regular fx weekly from CS which provides a good macro analysis across asset markets of where we are:
Here a nice technical update from the CS technical team on the SP500.
And here a great and new report from the DB team detailing their own technical perspectives application and trade updates.
Here the commerz team with a technical run through of the major fx pairs:
And here are commerz with a technical look at the bullion markets:
And here CS picking up on a specific trading pair the usdcad
And also here DB on the AUD and CAD with a macro side input:
Nomura illustrating nicely the messy trading in the usdjpy. Participants are fishing for the next trend here.