The technical picture for silver has become ultra bullish. The failure for price to step back into the ‘normal channel’ trend lines post the parabolic rise is expectionally rare and therefore super bullish for silver. The base has formed over the last 4 months or so. She is pushing on once again. The rise today …
Continue reading “Silver Taking Off.. A ‘Super Parabolic’ move coming..”
A key message for participants of equity markets is to be very careful in applying old paradigms of technical trading definitions of bull and bear markets to the brave new world we are entering. Technically trade equity markets in monetary lose periods is a very different game and must take into account the increasing issuance …
MS, on the headline, seems to be shifting stance a little towards recessionary risks which would be U turn on their views expressed 10 days or so ago (report published here look for ‘MS rebuff to UBS’). But on closer reader MS have not changed their view that the US will not slip back into …
Continue reading “Morgan Stanley “Dangerously Close to Recession””
We are mid august with most of the pros back on holiday following the huge volatility of a few weeks ago subsiding for now. Asia markets calm over night and barely moving. US indexes seeing more volatility yesterday but retracing the 160 ticks lows (dow) and ending the session flat. Out of hours on the …
Morgan-Stanley – petrochemincals Morgan’s siting the usual suspects of India and China providing a game change to the petro chemicals industry. And here a view of the oil refineries currently under construction across Asia. These refineries will add 70mbpd for 2011 or an addition 1.5mbpd refinery capacity. By 2016 Asia will have added an additional …
Yet another wonderful example of the ‘unintended consequences’ of the policy makers desire for permanent market liquidity and zero interest rates. I see regulators and policy makers have been out this weekend calling for yet more regulation. This time for the use of such black box ambush systems. For the smart cash investor they present …
Continue reading ““HFT” High Frequency Trading Example.. NLY”
From Bloomberg.. In my opinion this is the single most important news story of the week. This is very significant and explains everything in terms of the price action that i observed was ‘strange’. These trades are leveraged short term trades that are typically netted off at the end of the day. They bombard the …
Continue reading “High Frequency Trading Boxes explains “sell off” volumes..”
UBS preferring EM markets at these levels given the strong balance sheets of the em countries. Given the risk issues in the market the theme of ‘balanced’ cos with strong diversified earnings is coming forward again and again. UBS-08-Aug-2011 The pro risk trade is likely to continue to come off albeit we are still oversold …
Continue reading “UBS – Global Equities.. “Quality stocks within a balanced sector allocation””
Quick listing of some key news events. Clearly Deutsche Bank have a lot of underwater positions at present and so praising central bankers. Quite amusing.. lol. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/central-bankers-become-tower-of-strength-amid-debt-turmoil.html Copper demand rises out of China in spite of poor seasonal factors. The evidence is China will keep switching from USDs to buy hard commodities when prices drop. …
Asia overnight.. same old same old.. weakness but not significant weakness.. An optimist would call Asian indexes calm albeit that they, nonetheless fell. (Shanghai aside – which managed to turn positive. I wouldn’t read too much into this yet. The technicals are a disaster although well oversold now). Its note worthy that as the cash …
Continue reading “Markets – Technical Glimmers of a near term Bottom.. (& Miners)”
Playing in to what has been said in the forum pages Barcap coming forward and highlighting the danger and parallels to 2008. The momentum is clearly to the south side. If counter momentum moves are beating back again and again, over sold or not, these markets will crash downwards. This is starting to become the …