Markets have closed. Its been volatile but no significant spikes down after the morning’s fireworks. We are at 12128 on the ym or exactly 100 ticks higher than the lows of the day and 1293 es or sp500 futures as i type i.e. no key levels have been broken. So we await our political masters …
Author Archives: prestonni
UOB (United Overseas Bank) Q3 Japan Outlook
Below the UOB Q3 2011 view for Japan. Japan continues to be an interesting market opportunity. We have several events that can occur at any moment inc inflation targeting for the BOJ, the replacement of her chairman and for much more monetization. The political stalemate continues in japan re the budget wranglings. The long awaited …
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Markets
Asia overnight calm. All moved lower but between .2% and .5% or so.. Asia does not believe the US default is remotely possible. US indexes wise we came to 5 ticks to my near term target of 12150 on the ym (dow futures). We hit 12155 in hours session. I’ve let all my remaining shorts …
UBS ‘The Decade Ahead’ (secular equity bull market) & Goldman’s Jim O’Niel’s Viewpoint..
A couple of very good reports, imo. UBS called the end of the cyclical bull market last week calling (SP500) 1370 or thereabouts as the near term likely top, probably in August 2011 but there house longer term view is for a secular bull market in equity given ‘undervaluation’ at current levels. UBS-“The-Decade-Ahead” This report …
Markets..
Asia relatively strong over night with minor falls on the key Hangseng and Shanghi indexes. Nikkei weaker but other indexes not breaking. Calm prevails at present in spite of the market watch headlines of ‘big falls’ in asia overnight. US indexes.. I forecast 12150 early yesterday as a likely near term target for the ym …
Dr Marc Faber latest Interview on KWN
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/7/26_Dr._Marc_Faber.html Rich
Merril Lynch Forecasts for Oil, Gold & Standard Chartered on Gold
Worth a scan for the house view from Merril july reports on oil and gold for their 2012 projections. Some useful charts and data in each. What comes from both reports is their 2012 bullish call on copper for 11500. These sorts of projections for copper go some way to explaining the copper miners out …
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FHA (Federal Housing Administration) Insolvency..
Since the 2007 mortgage collapse the FHA has become single guarantor of mortgages in the States. Her capital reserves has sunk from 20bn to 3.6bn in the last few years as mortgage defaults have triggered pay outs. The FHA’s defaults are high as they accept low deposits. As low as 3% in fact. This with …
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Markets
As was.. Asia steady overnight. Shanghi up 14 points or so. The US debt issues are not affecting sentiment in the markets. No one is pricing in any US default or even slightly hedging against such an event. US indexes got that near term weakness but rebounded into the close. Some sort of breakout rally …
Markets
Asia overnight weak but most sub 1% falls. However, the big story was the Shanghi that collapsed over night by over 3% and making a very bearish chart now. Amazingly many industrial metal issues have not collapsed this am inc Rio, Anglo etc. I have sold down on the few copper related issues i held. …
Eurozone Greece Statement & the EFSF monetary monster
Eurozone-statement-on-Greece-s-2nd-bailout Kicking the can just extended the EFSF entity to providing 30 yr loans to Greece. The EFSF was intended to be a temporary ‘crisis’ entity. It has become the, effective, backdoor issuer of euro area bonds. Something the original creators of the euro fought hard to prevent. Complete fiscal union is close at hand, …
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Markets..
We have Asian markets much stronger over night bouncing on the ‘good’ news of Euro increases in money supply to both banks and greece through the effective creation of euro bonds through the EFSF. This is very good for asset markets as more loans equals more money which makes each existing unit worth less so …