Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for …
Category Archives: Commodities
Emerging Market Report Blitz & Some Comments..
Some excellent reports on emerging markets and related issues such as inflation here: Capital-Flows-to-Emerging-Market UB-emerging-markets-120711 DanskeInflation02082011 The multi trillion dollar issue is how the capital inflow issue is affected by the inflation issue. I suggest emerging market (EM) economies (generally) have more levers at their disposal to deal with inflation than do the highly indebted …
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Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’
The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down. A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change) into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and …
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Chart Blitz – (A Purely Price Analysis)..
Here we see the Dow cash which on Friday met her prior high set April 2011.. Its not a breakout yet on the dow cash but its very close now.. The wider S&P500 isn’t performing as well as the DOW for obvious reasons.. ie that large multinational cos are greatly prefered at present due to …
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Hyper Inflationary End Game Approaches.. Dr.Ben Bernanke, Gideon Gono, Rudolf Von Havenstein..
I dont want to repeat myself but yesterday provided more signals for the inevitable direction we are on so its correct to stand back and repeat what has said before events overwhelm those unprepared for what is occuring. Yes, the list of arrogant central bankers who have debased their nation’s currencies is long indeed. Before …
Weekly Technical View & Macro Comments, ‘Near Term Overbought’..
The Swiss team have changed their stance a little. The recent strength providing evidence that the pull back, when it comes, will be shallow and not severe. From their technical perspective, they judge, this move will likely therefore run to the end of March or early April and score a higher high across the broad …
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Near Term Bearish..
The Swiss team continuing to be bearish. In boiling down the reasons for their view they sight three main reasons. Bearish divergence for the McClellan, AAII bullish sentiment survey and the OSX put call ratio at extremes. They use some sector rotation signals to re-call an interim mtop here for the spx etc. I’m where …
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Chart Blitz.. (A Purely Price Analysis)
We have many instruments at resistances or supports.. We have had an excellent run and the loan data is coming through more positively for both the US and China. The YM or dow futures having enjoyed a near 20% run up from the Oct lows looking like she needs a breather if merely just to …
2012 Forecasts..
As attached from MS.. I have to say up front that disagree with the basic premise that stimulus is coming to an end. We have negative interest rates and imo these will widen as inflation rises. Direct QE may not be needed should credit growth expand as the fed, boe, ecb desire but on any …
2011 Investment and Trading Performance Review..
Apologies for how overdue this document is.. precious precious time is always the problem.. and the older i get the more i realize just how precious it is.. Wrinkles are appearing where there were none before and this has encouraged me to be more careful with my investment of this precious resource. So i hope …
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Santa Rally – End of Year ‘Window Dressing’ or more..?
Many bullish trending charts broke in the run up to xmas. But we have not experienced any dramatic falls that price watchers may have expected. Seasonals have done their magic trick of supporting prices and stabalized things. Of course central bankers and some slightly better economic data from the US has assisted. The DOW cash …
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Portfolio Allocations & Markets.. The Multi Asset BEAR is Very Close Now..
Ok, so where are we? In my opinion, the old trader’s line of ‘buy the rumour sell the news’ has been spot on. Seasonals have a part but they don’t drive the market. We are, therefore, in the process of the entire ‘risk on’ trend breaking. As a general technical and fundamental comment, rather than …
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