What a week its been and not the week to go on vacation it seems.. The sp500 has moved down 10% in the last 5 days. Dow around 8% or so. Oil has fallen by nearly 15% in the last week but was already more than 15% off her high of the year. Oil’s move …
Category Archives: Commodities
Merril Lynch Forecasts for Oil, Gold & Standard Chartered on Gold
Worth a scan for the house view from Merril july reports on oil and gold for their 2012 projections. Some useful charts and data in each. What comes from both reports is their 2012 bullish call on copper for 11500. These sorts of projections for copper go some way to explaining the copper miners out …
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Morgan Stanley OIL & Asset Allocations June2011
Morgan-Stanley-Asset-Allocation-Strategy Morgan’s are bullish commodities and now forecasting oil spare capacity to have completely disappeared by Q3 2013. 2011 q1 saw Morgan’s get on board with peak oil. (the cynics may say a sell signal.. lol). Near term they expect some weakness especially with the Saudis and US,Europe releasing stores. Total bpd increase in june/july …
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Euro Bank Stress Tests – 8 fail
Well, 8 failed the tests.. 8 failing sort of implies there was a test at least.. which is quite possibly the reason why a few have failed. They are uniformly small banks, mostly in Spain. TheĀ capital required to make them pass is a mere 3.5bn usds or around 0.01% of euro annual gdp. So, …
Deutsche Bank – Food Price Projections
Deutsche-Bank-Lower-Food-Prices-Not-in-Sight Good to see Deutsche Bank finally mentioning currency debasement of the USD as a key driver of food prices.. You recall a year or so ago no reports mentioned currency debasement as a driver. At least research departments are playing catchup now. It seems few in the farming business now believe much the USDA …
Markets
Asia recovered her composure overnight, didn’t quite provide a complete reversal of the prior day but on many markets, shanghi inc, price got close. (as the shanghi in a down trend this reversal isn’t too significant. Hangseng less impressive, 50% retrace). We said yesterday the price action was ‘in control’ and that the longs were …
Goldmans Commodity Watch 2H – 2011 pdf
From a few days ago, the Goldmans 2h view for commodities. ‘We reiterate our long trading recommendations for Brent crude oil, UK natural gas, copper, zinc and soybeans’. 59520474-Goldman-Sachs-Commodity-Watch-2H2011-Outlook-July-7-2011 Essentially bullish due to the supply demand imbalances but near term volatility and short term risks to the downside. 20% upside for the next 12 months …
Markets (catchup)
Markets So where are we here and now and where are likely to move to in the near term. Asia over night was weak. Singapore, HangSeng, Nikkei down over night. No particular fireworks although the Hangseng showed the best chance of producing fireworks particularly at the end of the session. I …
Oil Price Charts – Technical view
Below is purely a technical analysis of price. Geopolitical issues of which there are many around oil can and may at this time play havoc with the price action.. nonetheless this below is the represents the path of least resistance. Long term Beautiful up trending chart. In force the last few years. Price wants to …
Energy – Financial Sense & Data
Good interview, imo, with Chris Nelder on energy covering the key issues. The energy sector is a high yielding sector at present. It is very likely, imo, that we get a dip in the next 6 months due to the worsening world wide data. Post this energy stocks should rapidly reach new highs as fundamentally …
Morgan Stanley on USDA Corn Crop Estimates
The data shows the USDA is consistent. They consistently over estimated corn supplies and stock projections. They are 100% consistent in this respect. The USDA stunned the markets, at least momentarily, by their latest corn estimates a week or so ago. More and more participants have called this data into question, now inc MS. I’ve …
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China Raises Rates, can’t sell Bonds, Trade Surplus Widens
Having narrowed recently, the trade surplus is widening again. Why? According to China’s own data she has been using stores of food and metals. Copper imports are slightly up from the prior month (but remember the prior month was very low for copper imports due to draining her stores – note copx price very high …
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