Lets start with some words of wisdom from a man whose trading record makes him one of the modern trading masters. “I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.” G.Soros. With these words in mind lets look at the price history here as most certainly market …
Continue reading “Technical Analysis Cycles Update – Is It 1998 All Over Again? 24th April16”
Back in Dec15 when the bear move started, it was pretty clear that the move was early and needed to be tested before this multi year bull market was truly toast. On the most recent wave of the risk rebound we needed to get to a rally point where the early bears would be throwing …
Another week rolls by. Asset classes, sp500 and nas100 aside, are confirming the bearish macro landscape for risk assets and continuation of the cyclical bear. Without a new price breakout by key US sectors and indexes the issue remains a timing one for when the bear across all risk assets will resume. Indeed if the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Markets Vulnerable” 5th April16″
Another week quickly comes around and the major macro event, following on from the ultra easy ECB, was the soothing dovish Fed. Price has reacted positively for the bulls with the sp500 making margin new highs. World indexes not confirming the move although currency adjusted it looks better as the US$ has weakened a little. …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactically Toppish” 29th March16″
Its too early to call the top but we are very very close to confirmation across instruments. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/es.jpg We have the sp500 losing upward momentum, weak breadth, contrarian put call, dropping volatility vixx, negative divergence on price, we have a renewed us$ bounce and a big bounce at over sold levels vs many commodity currencies …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Take Profits Across Equities” 23rd March16″
Risk assets continue to build to an important and profitable corrective top from their over sold bounce earlier in Q1. I’m taking gradually taking profits on risk, though not precious metals, at the higher levels of the top of this very recent distribution. Unfortunately i cant bring many meaningful technical comments of my own as …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Corrective Top In Sight” 16th March16″
Price action has been steady with no fireworks, only oil aside. Its an interesting report again this week from the guys. The correction from over sold levels across risk has occurred more powerfully and rapidly than the Swiss team expected. They have therefore shifted their timing model forward reading the recent moves as an impulsive …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bounce in Risk Close to Completion” 8th March16″
So far so good on the ABC rally. A is extending and B is delayed, for now. Breadth is weakening so its a matter of time before we take a breather here. Comments on micro managing this rally from last week sustain. Gold has not shown much of retrace in spite of the US dollar …
The market risk on rally continues though as a part of the rally the team forecasting a near term top before continuation, classic ABC. Oil appears to have bottomed as have many commodities and commodity fx. Gold appears likely near term capped for now at her recent resistance 1250 to 1270. Currencies wise, the gbp …
None of us have a crystal ball but we do have technical analysis which on probability is proving once again a wonderful guide to short and medium term asset market direction. Levels wise we did indeed score the lower low across most risk markets and it did appear indeed to provide a wonderful trading entry …
Markets are moving quickly here so a few technical comments. The bounce has not sustained. US sector wise the prior alphas of tech and bio tech are the unsurprisingly the alphas now to the down side. Bio tech particularly has made new lows again and is now down 40% from her high point. Europe has …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Basing but Re-test of Lows, Possible” 2nd Feb16″
The probable scenario of a multi week rebound appears to be play here and the 2008 melt down scenario thankfully avoided. I’m traveling unfortunately so i leave the analysis to the reports. Ill add comment in a few days but in hindsight my own book’s timing is so far so good on both sides of …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactical Low Forming” 26th Jan16″