We remain at the cross roads and to steal the line from UBS a “make or break” moment in world asset markets. So lets use the time to reconsider where we are fundamentally here. In my view the fundamentals are finally in line with the techncials albeut at a higher nominal level than i would …
Continue reading “Economic Data Review & Greenlight Capital Q2 Letter”
As we sit here waiting for central action, or not, technical indicators are demonstrating significant moves in either direction. The Swiss team are using the “make or break” term here and now. I’ll leave all the detail on levels and various asset classes to the report. They do an excellent job of summing up things …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – Markets on a “Knife Edge””
The Swiss team, on the money yet again. Im back in the office tomorrow so comments then. All the best RichWeekly10-07
Here the Swiss team’s weekly technical comments. They are expecting a large inter governmental qe3 event but weakness may extent into the fall of 2012 before a new significant bull leg in equities takes hold. They therefore discount, for now, the deflationary melt down scenario that some are pointing to. They do point out that …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – No Deflationary Meltdown”
Ahead of the Swiss team’s technical briefing some of my own thoughts here.. We are in a very difficult area of the trading chart here. Technically we remain massively oversold but with the bounces being very poorly supported long attempts have been beaten back and you are lucky to score positively on playing the “bounce”. …
Continue reading “Market Musings – Inflection Point For Risk On/Risk Off”
The Swiss team remain near term bullish but not change on the post rally bear. Away in London at present so I’ll save more meaningful comments when back at the desk. All the best Rich Weekly30-04
The Swiss team sticking to their medium term call of another wave down but near term they are calling for a multi week rally here this week. They like risk assets ie the CRB as well AUDUSD and believe a new high is to come for some EM indexes. Medium term they stick to their …
I’ve been making the case for global equities since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Developed world equities have come a long way, more than doubling, since the 2009 lows but does this make them expensive here? Not in my and many other’s opinion (inc GS’s as below). The same recent positive gains cannot be said for …
The Swiss team haven’t changed their minds. They see yesterday’s new highs as a wave 5 of this trend. They still favour a near term pull back sighting the weakness in the cyclical material, industrial and transport stocks as evidence. We can see this recent rally has not carried miners or industrials with it. Other …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments.. “Don’t Chase but S&P 1425 Overshoot Possible””
We remain a little overbought here but equities have rotated and worked off a little of the over bought momentum. Here the main SP500 index: We have come a long very quickly so logic tells you a correction should occur here. We (inc many commentators) have been expecting a minor pull back for the last …
Continue reading “Macro Monetary, Economic & Market Comments..”
Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for …