Ahead of the Swiss team’s technical briefing some of my own thoughts here.. We are in a very difficult area of the trading chart here. Technically we remain massively oversold but with the bounces being very poorly supported long attempts have been beaten back and you are lucky to score positively on playing the “bounce”. …
Continue reading “Market Musings – Inflection Point For Risk On/Risk Off”
The Swiss team confirm the near term capitulation that we saw last week. They expect a bounce here lasting between 5 and 10 sessions. They recommend selling strength with S&P 1250 and even 1210 as cyclical targets. Its hard to disagree with their analysis on this occassion. Greek elections marked for the 17th June and …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “5 to 10 Session Bounce A Selling Opportunity””
As markets tumble we have to ask the same question we have asked ourselves so many times before. Is the economy, once again, heading into a deflationary de-leveraging spiral? The 10yr T-bond rates would answer this question with a resounding answer – yes! Lipper fund flow data has continued to roll in month after month …
Continue reading “The Inflationary Inflection Point Approaches”
And a few more.. (On the latest, end of March Case Shiller US house prices adjusted for inflation using the official inflation nos, we are back to the year 2000 house prices. This chart shows the end of Feb index readings, official inflation adjusted).
A wide ranging and therefore good report from WF today from their weekly international economic commentary. I therefore post it up for weekend reading. The quick summary, the data appears to be softening from Bejing to New York to London. I’m starting to get that all too familiar feeling of “deja vu” here and now. …
Continue reading “Weekly International Economic Indicators Commentary (Care of WF).”
I’ve been making the case for global equities since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Developed world equities have come a long way, more than doubling, since the 2009 lows but does this make them expensive here? Not in my and many other’s opinion (inc GS’s as below). The same recent positive gains cannot be said for …
The UK and US present us with the model for how developed nation’s economic recoveries will play out. Their recoveries are built on the basis of more consumer and government debt funded by increases in taxes and debt monetizations artificially surpressing interest rates to stimulate more consumption and reductions in savings. Wages lag inflation so …
A supplementary trio on the US jobs data…
The ECB now leads the world’s central banks by quite a margin in terms of size and risk of her balance sheet. The ECB’s balancesheet, post LTRO2 has hit a whopping $4trn. It is a dark comedy that the financial crisis of 2008 resulted from Bank’s over inflating their balance sheet exposures. As we can …
Continue reading “The World’s Largest Ever Balance Sheet Exposure – ECB $4trn”
We remain a little overbought here but equities have rotated and worked off a little of the over bought momentum. Here the main SP500 index: We have come a long very quickly so logic tells you a correction should occur here. We (inc many commentators) have been expecting a minor pull back for the last …
Continue reading “Macro Monetary, Economic & Market Comments..”