Everything running surprisingly smoothly at present.. long may it last. We know the consensus was very negative on the recent lows. We also know fund redemptions have been severe and that companies are sitting on cash heavy balance sheets. These positive factors seem to be holding up and the market and the momentum is to …
Category Archives: Economics
Weekly Fundamental Indicators..
WF weekly review.. The data is ok. Things are very weak. So weak that the data on jobs is barely positive. The manufacturing ISM reading was 0.8 over zero growth. Ie sub 50 would infer a contraction of economic activity.. The ISM has come down to 50.8. Is this good news.. not really.. Although it …
The World’s Super Central Bank, The IMF, moves to Monetize ‘without limits’ via SDRs.
The G20 sessions have ended without specific agreement. The conclusion of the G-20 meeting granted Internaciona Monetary Fund (IMF) the ‘possibility’ of expanding its resources “without limits”. “I leave here with a permit to expand my resources without ground, without shelter, without limits. The G-20 members have told us they will do everything possible so …
Euro Farce… cont.. (Update – ECB Lowers Rates & Greece Cancels Referendum)
ECB has just announced it is lowering interest rates.. This is almost entirely due to the ever increasing spread to German bunds we are witnessing in the debt markets. The measure will assist but its no where near enough.. And, better than a soap opera, 48hrs after announcing a Greek referendum on the bailout, its …
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45.8m Americans Recieving Food Stamps – A New Record Aug 2011
GDP apparently increasing as unemployment rises and incomes fall. The latest food stamp data shows an 8.1% increase yoy in the number of Americans receiving food benefits as their incomes are insufficient to feed themselves. Its an interesting two tier system where over half the American population pay no income taxes at all now. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/u-s-food-stamp-use-reaches-record-45-8-million-usda-says.html …
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Weekly Technical Update.. & Comments..
UBS still insisting the bounce is intact and to buy the dips so long as sp500 cash stays above 1220 on a closing basis. Weekly01-11 Well, we are at 1218 on the sp500 cash now and below this on futures. We are therefore at a key level now which is repeating across currencies and other …
Euro Farse.. Update.. inc Portuguese, Spanish, Italian & French Spreads to Bunds
The eurocrat’s off balance sheet final solution mIII is rapidly unraveling before our eyes. The implications are unimaginable. There is no off balance sheet financial repression solution without the ECB monetizing debt. The implications of the Chinese offer to lend only yuan to the troubled euro area (EFSF) is clear.. Ie translated ‘we don’t want …
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Weekly Economic Data.. 28th Oct..
An excellent report from WF this week.. the data in the US is mixed but the latest GDP forecasts improved.. (GDP always rises in a positive inflation environment as governments understate inflation and therefore over state GDP growth. The oldest trick in the book of course). Wonderfully WF picks up on the ‘financial repression’ strategy. …
‘Equities The Only Show in Town’.. Due to Unlimited Monetary Expansion
Further to the post from a month ago.. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/international-equities-the-only-show-in-town/ Today was not about the European news flow. Today was simply a tiny portion of the wall of capital that is resting in cash and bonds entering the equity markets. Participants in cash are beginning to see the future and that future is all about a …
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Debt vs Guarantee – The Latest ‘Off Balance Sheet’ Euro Ponzi Scheme..
Throughout our history it is said that the most effective ponzi schemes are the ones that no one can understand. If you can present a complex ponzi scheme to an investor that is near panic with fear or greed you will be able to run your ponzi scheme. The scheme works as the goal of …
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A European Farce.. Inc Update2
We had a decent bounce in equities across the world in the last few weeks. We have a mild retrace at present which is needed to allow the indexes to push onward again soon. Pick your levels as entries to join the rally but keep stops fairly close given the issues we see all around …
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) -14th Oct 2011
We continue to see no ‘off the cliff’ sort of declines in the leading economic indicators. Just as there was a disconnect earlier in the year as regards the weakening data and high equity valuations so too, on the lows of 2 weeks ago, there was a disconnect between the weak (though not disasterous) economic …
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