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Weekly Technical Comments.. “Don’t Chase but S&P 1425 Overshoot Possible”
by on Mar 27, 2012 •The Swiss team haven’t changed their minds. They see yesterday’s new highs as a wave 5 of this trend. They still favour a near term pull back sighting the weakness in the cyclical material, industrial and transport stocks as evidence. We can see this recent rally has not carried miners or industrials with it. Other...
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Macro Monetary, Economic & Market Comments..
by on Feb 25, 2012 •We remain a little overbought here but equities have rotated and worked off a little of the over bought momentum. Here the main SP500 index: We have come a long very quickly so logic tells you a correction should occur here. We (inc many commentators) have been expecting a minor pull back for the last...
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Land of the Rising Sun..
by on Feb 18, 2012 •Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for...
Emerging Market Report Blitz & Some Comments..
by on Feb 14, 2012 •Some excellent reports on emerging markets and related issues such as inflation here: Capital-Flows-to-Emerging-Market UB-emerging-markets-120711 DanskeInflation02082011 The multi trillion dollar issue is how the capital inflow issue is affected by the inflation issue. I suggest emerging market (EM) economies (generally) have more levers at their disposal to deal with inflation than do the highly indebted...
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Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’
by on Feb 14, 2012 •The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down. A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change) into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and...
Macro View – The Developed Nation Two Tier Monetary System To Directly Enfranchise Emerging Market Consumers
by on Feb 13, 2012 •The Post Developed Market Debt Explosion.. 2008 to 2012 ‘A Two Tier Monetary System’ From 2008 to now, those in the developed world have experienced a two tier financial system. Capital has been abundant and cheap for banks and governments. But it has been scarce and expensive for consumers and small and medium sized firms....
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Chart Blitz.. (A Purely Price Analysis)
by on Jan 13, 2012 •We have many instruments at resistances or supports.. We have had an excellent run and the loan data is coming through more positively for both the US and China. The YM or dow futures having enjoyed a near 20% run up from the Oct lows looking like she needs a breather if merely just to...
A Quick Refresher.. Jobs, Population, USD Reserves & Inflationary Expropriations
by on Jan 12, 2012 •The US population expands yoy by approximately 1.5% (producing a doubling time of about 45 years). The rate of change here has not diminished. Every new entrant needs an auto loan, housing loan, student loan etc. In a world of exponential curves the curve of population growth and debt creation look likely to continue, for...
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Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
by on Nov 16, 2011 •A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they...
Weekly Technical View..
by on Nov 15, 2011 •The UBS team continue to expect a late Nov high beta rally. They site the 1.348 eurusd level as important too hold to sustain the risk on rally and sp500 1226. Lets see.. Weekly15-11 For my mind market watch here providing a rare ‘perfect’ summary of where we are.. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bulls-need-to-punch-through-resistance-2011-11-14?link=mw_home_kiosk Rich p.s. With the pre...
Weekly Technical Update.. & Comments..
by on Nov 1, 2011 •UBS still insisting the bounce is intact and to buy the dips so long as sp500 cash stays above 1220 on a closing basis. Weekly01-11 Well, we are at 1218 on the sp500 cash now and below this on futures. We are therefore at a key level now which is repeating across currencies and other...
Weekly Technical Update.. Short Term Corrective Move Consistent Within Rally
by on Oct 18, 2011 •Report here below.. will update later with, hopefully, more meaningful comments as under time pressure here.. Rich UBSWeekly18-10