The bond markets are continuing to drive this weakness in risk asset markets here. Volatility is rising considerably across bond and equity markets though particularly in non US markets. The Sp500 and other US indexes still show as many technical signs of a continuation as opposed to any trend change move, for now. European markets …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Europe Near Term Low” 09th May15″
FX markets are once again the scene of extreme volatility which is feeding negatively into European stock prices. We have many cross winds here from technical non confirmations of the recent highs to currency confusion and increasing bond volatility. Ftse100 has dropped below her multi month uptrend line support which is a bearish and needs …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Weak Breadth” 4th June 2015 V2″
Contrary to what many market pundits have been writing this bull market lives on and is moving higher, for now. There are all sorts of technical and fundamental issues with these new highs but we are paid on price and price is showing that another leg albeit on low momentum is in progress here. I …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2160 to 2200” 28th May15″
Euro asset markets have bounced off some key technical levels (especially euro equity indexes) which has been important to at least halt this recent weakness. US indexes like the dow and sp500 have made new record highs, albeit with low momentum thus far. Technical issues remain of course like breath divergences as well as lead …
Volatility across asset markets continues to be the theme. The pull back in Europe has been deeper than most anticipated but the structure of the equity bull market remains unchanged, for now. Selectivity is the theme as the tired bull struggles on. The most dramatic change has been on the bond side with is certainly …
2015 was always going to be a volatile year. US markets have stalled in terms of momentum and selectivity is rising but I agree with the Swiss team that, for now the bull trend is holding and certainly above 2077 sp500 the trend remains our friend and is higher. Europe’s sell off is entering an …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 +2077 Bullish, Europe, Buy the Dip” 05th May15″
Its been another very busy week of short term currency trading. There has been stellar momentum in FX markets. Positionally its been correct to shift FX book inline with a weakening US$ to provide a warm US$ tailwind to the long book. It was correct to shift out of the US$ cash and only cover …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Rising Selectivity” 28th April15″
Its time for another technical run through of the major asset markets. We have continued to chop up directionally across all asset classes here from equities to fx. We are looking for direction which is neatly reflected in the latest cftc report. Some profit taking and paring of positions but no trend changes, as yet. …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Minor Top, Europe Buy The Dips” 21st April15 V2″
We have seen some “choppy” price action in both equities and FX in the last week or so but the larger trend directions are the prevailing themes for price. Unless there is a serious news development price will travel along the path of least resistance. For equities that means higher prices and for FX the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bull Trend in Equities Remains Intact” 14th April15″
Although last Thursday was an impressive disappoint for US job creation it has not stuck. Technical levels have held once again and yesterday some equity markets even managed new breakout highs. For my book ive taken hedges away again on the sp500. Currencies wise, if it were not for elections in the UK and the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 BreakOut Attempt” 08th April15″
Its amazing how quickly Tuesday seems to come around every week. Its the usual drill again this week with a v1 issue and updates to follow. Here a trio of technical reports from the “swiss team”, ML and of course the excellent GS report. Much more to come tomorrow. First up by way of an …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Wave C, HangSeng Breaking Out” 31st March15″
Volatility has continued with all asset markets continuing to show large movements again in the last week. Currency markets have traded very well with very clear price signals. For my own book its been an exceptionally strong week for FX and with euro equities remaining strong and the IBEX35 breaking out strongly. I going to …