Summer time continues in the price action in major developed market equity markets. We have a fair amount of chop here alongside low volume as participants hold back from committing in either direction. As we know the run up to this period has been off the back of weak breadth and momentum and so the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Copper Breakout Continues” 25th Aug17″
Ok, another August week rolls by and, as so often seems to occur in August, we have a continuation of these choppy non directionally bias asset markets. We are by nature looking for direction across markets so we can expect a jump in volatility heading into September. This August looks very similar to August 2016 …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Sept Correction/$ Basing” 10th Aug17″
The weakness in the US$ has continued to support lead US equity indexes and commodities alike. This week I’m instead going to focus my words on the weaker non usd indexes especially given the likeliness of a bounce here in the US$. So the key price weakness in recent weeks has been European Indexes and …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Aug Top, Europe Corrective Bounce” 27th July17″
Well no great surprises for readers here as the US$ has indeed debased and so the party can continue another leg with all the implications this entails re capital flows into em markets, commodities, bullion etc. Breadth across the US indexes remains weak but as a continuation within this leg of this bull market is …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 Last Leg Up into Aug – 21st July17”
Another week rolls past and we have a pick up in price volatility here and much continued weakness and threatened breakdown for commodities. We are starting to see the 2016 to 2017 reflation trade or “escape velocity” narrative that has underpinned much of this wave 5 starting to look very weak indeed. Technically we should …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Summer Risk Top Next 5-10 Sessions” – 22nd June17″
Hi guys, we have some near term weakness here following on the failure to meaningfully breakout across risk indexes. Commodities remain very weak here and need to be watch. We should see at least one more attempt at the reflation trade continuation so entries on commodities, at the least for a bounce should show in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Near Term Weakness” 15th June17″
Reports wise, we have a continuation of the Swiss team’s view that US equity risk (sp500) is tactically toppish here before a July new mkt high beckons. We have talked before about predicting tactical moves within a strong bull mkt and how problematic this can be. In this last week, many indexes have broken out …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – Tactically Toppish – 9th June17”
New highs for US equity market markets once again whilst the Europe takes a breather and the strong euro holding her indexes back for now. The Pound once again coming under pressure. If these near term supports fail the pound could produce a large move very both US$ and Euro, downwards. Commodities remain weak in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Minor Top This Week” 31st May17″
Guys, we remain firmly inside this wave five and i do hope all are enjoying the ride here. I read this week Merrill Lynch Global Research are calling this wave five likely to become a “speculative mania” across all risk assets. “The longer it takes central banks to tighten, the greater the risk of a …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Trading Bottom In Place” 24th May17″
A week of significantly increased volatility with potentially a break of a key tactical supports for US (SPX 2380) and European equity indexes. Conversely a strong breakout for the euro with Aud, gold, oil and copper seeing decent bounces. The euro potentially resuming her cyclical uptrend vs the gbp. Lets cut to the analysis from …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Consolidation, Gold Basing” 19th May17″
Another week roles by with more pain on the commodity side and more juice on the equity side with a new breakout in several Asian indexes playing the mean reversion catch up, though a long way to run to close the gap. Unfortunately i’m on a boat in the Ocean traveling and so I post …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch Commodities” 10th May17″
A bullish note from the guys again this week for US and European equity risk markets with a focus on the cyclicals and rotation back away from defensives. Given the impressive recent breadth its all very reasonable technical comment in my opinion also. Worthy of more comment is the commodity space. Commodities bottomed well in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Bullish Above Pivot 2329” – 3rd May17″