European equities have a strong monetary tailwind for now. Unlike the Yen and US$ quantitative move the euro has debased prior to the commencement of the euro OMT program which commences in March. This effectively creates an even warmer tailwind to euro equities especially exporters though from a macro perspective how long this can sustain …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bullion Buy The Dips” 3rd Feb15″
Another week of volatility sustains. It was a historic week for news flow as the ECB finally pressed the OMT button. Not a collective quantitative OMT action but performed via the NCBs (National Central Banks). If the devil is in the detail of these sort of policy announcements this was the certainly the detail. In …
Its been a blisteringly positive start to the year if you were short euros and long assets. Volatility remains at very elevated levels and trends are long with very few corrections across asset markets. Leverage remains at record levels and many instrument trade levels are at record level extremes. Ie long US$ positions. None of …
Continue reading “Technical FX Update – “Beware the Euro Bounce” 23rd Jan14″
Its been an extremely busy start to the year with volatility staying high across most asset classes. FX and the PMs have stepped up a gear. The US$ bull market has been truly impressive. As impressive as the euro’s bear market. The SNB’s decision has thrown risk management into total confusion as historic volatility in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Distribution Above 1972” 21st Jan15″
Its that time of the week again. We had a high momentum, reasonable volume given a normally quiet period, sell off for equities from trading day 1 2015. The technical issues are well flagged but price pattern wise having achieved a very recent higher high on many of the major indexes and sector indexes the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis Update v2 – 13th Jan15”
I believe we have started the year as we will likely go on. 2015 will likely be the year of step change in volatility. Before we turn to 2015 projections and technical considerations lets for a moment reflect on 2014 2014 was the year of the US$s return.The US$ strength played havoc with performance numbers …
Its Boxing day so i’m not providing a full release here for a few days yet. I will release a 2014 retrospect and look ahead to 2015 pre the calender end of year but let me enjoy this holiday for a few more days guys. Having said the above, I appreciate that it is …
Continue reading “Interim Boxing Day Technical Release – “Year Of The Sheep” 26th Dec14″
Apologies i’ve been traveling over the last few days again making yesterday’s update and comments impossible to achieve. Here are the latest tech reports. Ill be back with comments tomorrow. Here the Swiss team’s latest release. wklytech-16-12-14 And here BreamC: bc-tech-16-12-14 And here the GS Tech: gs-tech-16-12-14 And here the cs charts: cs-techcharts-13-12-14 And here …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Update – “SP500 1981 to 1950″ Before Dec Bounce” 17th Dec14″
Apologies for the delay in releasing technical comments and the Swiss team’s report this week. If you had experienced my travel arrangements (in sea storms) over the last 48hrs you would understand. At these levels instruments could see a step change in volatility as ive been saying over the last few weeks. On yesterday’s price …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Key Support 2049, Buy GDX” 09th Dec14″
Here as a prelude to the update tomorrow please find the latest CB report from Fitzpatrick. With the USDJPY now moving to 122 his largest allocation has been a the positional alpha fx trade for 2014. Congratulations to Fitzpatrick. Cb-wklytech-7-12-14 And here the UB wealth team with their own useful technical analysis report on world …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – Prelude 08th December14”
Here some reports missed from the last update. I’m going to treat this update as a release point for many reports over this weekend so do please check back here over the coming days. I’ll be releasing many 2015 views as well here. Firstly Fitzpatrick at CB (which i’ll update with his new report tomorrow …
Continue reading “Technical & Macro Report Updates – 4th Dec14”
Another week rolls by with new highs for the major US indexes and a breakdown for many commodities. Technically the more interesting question is what is non confirming the new sp500 and Dow highs ? Where are the divergences and what is wrong with this picture of health? Before we get to the Swiss team’s …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Short-Term Toppish” 2nd Dec14″