As markets tumble we have to ask the same question we have asked ourselves so many times before. Is the economy, once again, heading into a deflationary de-leveraging spiral? The 10yr T-bond rates would answer this question with a resounding answer – yes! Lipper fund flow data has continued to roll in month after month …
Continue reading “The Inflationary Inflection Point Approaches”
The Swiss team pointing to the AAII survey and the over sold indicators. (They dont pick up on the drop on bearish advisor sentiment as does Weinstien, Ive covered this on the forum). They are calling for a near term bounce in the next few sessions. The medium term technial weakness remains however so they …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “Short-Term Oversold Bounce” Before Selling Resumes”
The Swiss team (and many gurus inc Weinstien) getting uber bearish here and now. The cyclical bull is hanging on to a very thin thread now. They believe tech has already scored a cyclical top with a major correction in tech to come. Apple remains above 555 but watch this level. Weekly08-05 All the best …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “Sell Any Bounces”.”
The Swiss team assert that the bear is likely to push this lower and that a continuation to 1340 is the path of least resistance. They sight 1388 as a key level s&p500. Take note that on today’s sharp spike up we are back over 1388 as i type. If we do push on here …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “Below S&P 1388 invites a move to 1340””
I’ve been making the case for global equities since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Developed world equities have come a long way, more than doubling, since the 2009 lows but does this make them expensive here? Not in my and many other’s opinion (inc GS’s as below). The same recent positive gains cannot be said for …
The swiss team reconfirming their near term correction call and providing targets etc.. All the best Rich Weekly10-04
The Swiss team unsurprisingly maintain their bearish short and medium term views. They expect a pro commodity pro risk rally in the aud and some commodities short term but sight this as only an opportunity to sell. The Eurostoxx50 looks very weak as well as the Shanghai and Audusd and many commodities. Here the report. …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments.. Break of S&P500 1386 Bearish..”
We remain a little overbought here but equities have rotated and worked off a little of the over bought momentum. Here the main SP500 index: We have come a long very quickly so logic tells you a correction should occur here. We (inc many commentators) have been expecting a minor pull back for the last …
Continue reading “Macro Monetary, Economic & Market Comments..”
Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for …
The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down. A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change) into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’”
The Swiss team have changed their stance a little. The recent strength providing evidence that the pull back, when it comes, will be shallow and not severe. From their technical perspective, they judge, this move will likely therefore run to the end of March or early April and score a higher high across the broad …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical View & Macro Comments, ‘Near Term Overbought’..”
We have many instruments at resistances or supports.. We have had an excellent run and the loan data is coming through more positively for both the US and China. The YM or dow futures having enjoyed a near 20% run up from the Oct lows looking like she needs a breather if merely just to …