Weekly Technical Comment – Near Term Bounce in Equities and Commodities (Updated with brief macro update).

The Swiss team sticking to their medium term call of another wave down but near term they are calling for a multi week rally here this week. They like risk assets ie the CRB as well AUDUSD and believe a new high is to come for some EM indexes. Medium term they stick to their …

Weekly Technical Comments – “Below S&P 1388 invites a move to 1340”

The Swiss team assert that the bear is likely to push this lower and that a continuation to 1340 is the path of least resistance. They sight 1388 as a key level s&p500.  Take note that on today’s sharp spike up we are back over 1388 as i type. If we do push on here …

Weekly Technical Comments.. Break of S&P500 1386 Bearish..

The Swiss team unsurprisingly maintain their bearish short and medium term views. They expect a pro commodity pro risk rally in the aud and some commodities short term but sight this as only an opportunity to sell. The Eurostoxx50 looks very weak as well as the Shanghai and Audusd and many commodities. Here the report. …

Weekly Technical Comments.. “Don’t Chase but S&P 1425 Overshoot Possible”

The Swiss team haven’t changed their minds.  They see yesterday’s new highs as a wave 5 of this trend. They still favour a near term pull back sighting the weakness in the cyclical material, industrial and transport stocks as evidence. We can see this recent rally has not carried miners or industrials with it. Other …

Weekly Technical Comments – “S&P1400 Likely but don’t Chase the Rally”

The Swiss team are where they were essentially. They have revised up their near term S&P target but remain very cautious on the rally and advise not chasing.  They maintain an end of Q1, early Q2 top followed by a resumption of the cyclical bear. “From a cyclical perspective, May to July should be weak …

The World’s Largest Ever Balance Sheet Exposure – ECB $4trn

The ECB now leads the world’s central banks by quite a margin in terms of size and risk of her balance sheet. The ECB’s balancesheet, post LTRO2 has hit a whopping $4trn. It is a dark comedy that the financial crisis of 2008 resulted from Bank’s over inflating their balance sheet exposures. As we can …

Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’

The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down.  A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change)  into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and …

Macro View – The Developed Nation Two Tier Monetary System To Directly Enfranchise Emerging Market Consumers

The Post Developed Market Debt Explosion..  2008 to 2012 ‘A Two Tier Monetary System’ From 2008 to now, those in the developed world have experienced a two tier financial system. Capital has been abundant and cheap for banks and governments. But it has been scarce and expensive for consumers and small and medium sized firms. …