We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is …
Category Archives: FX
Central Bank of Zimbabwe Governor “Worried About the US Dollar”
This is a wonderful story that i had to post up. Gideon Gono, the infamous Governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe, is worried about the US dollar it seems. From 2010 he has pegged his country’s currency to the dollar. He is interpretting recent events re the continued printing of money and debt monetizations …
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“Buy The Rumour Sell the News”
Following the central bank’s actions last Tuesday its been right to wait and see how prices of the different asset classes have reacted to the intervensions before commenting and taking too many actions. On the news last week, it was correct to add risk via reducing the hedging shorts and adding a few euros. The …
Central Banks Swaps Lines Attempt to Re-set Pro Risk Rally
I dont have time now to comment fully now but the latest central bank action represents massive intervension in the fx markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/stock-futures-in-u-s-decline-after-bank-ratings-cut-by-standard-poor-s.html In summary its clear signal to market participants that no cash is safe. That central banks will be willing to accept overseas soverign debt junk (ie euro debt) as acceptable collateral for …
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Weekly Technical Comments – Xmas Rally in Place (Subject to 1158 sp500 holding)..
Here attached the UBS pair’s weekly technical comments.. They are maintaining their bullish stance re equities and pro risk assets generally. They don’t mention the eurusd specifically but state they are bearish on the dx and so we have to assume they are bullish on the euro as the dx is mainly the eurusd pair. …
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Chart Blitz
So ends another week in the capital markets. Last week the technicals confirmed the macro fundamentals so that this weeks move was pretty inevitable. Everything fell into place in last week inc the inverse correlation of equity markets to the dx weakening. Although the macro picture seems to be worsening every day that passes (as …
Summary Its a Bacon Slicer – ‘We Are All Doomed But Some Less Than Others’
Where to start.. Firstly, apologies for not posting sooner. I will post some technical charts up after this brief comment. France, Germany and Italy made a joint statement out of Frankfurt today that the ECB will remain independent and that there would be no undue pressure from sovereign states to enforce the ECB to monetize …
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Market Chart Blitz
Given where we are, lets rush through some charts.. Here the super important Eurusd.. this pair is the major construct for the DX (dollar basket) and seems to define the entire direction of the market (most of the time). The risk on off correlation to eurusd is weakening a little but is still alive for …
Euro Farse – Update..
As previously noted here, the ‘final solution’ re Europe’s debt deleveraging must come from either the ECB and or IMF. It should come as no surprise then that Euro officials are working along side the IMF to work around the ECB non monetization of debt legal constraints. Last night the IMF Head of European matters …
Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they …
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Weekly Technical View..
The UBS team continue to expect a late Nov high beta rally. They site the 1.348 eurusd level as important too hold to sustain the risk on rally and sp500 1226. Lets see.. Weekly15-11 For my mind market watch here providing a rare ‘perfect’ summary of where we are.. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bulls-need-to-punch-through-resistance-2011-11-14?link=mw_home_kiosk Rich p.s. With the pre …
The World’s Super Central Bank, The IMF, moves to Monetize ‘without limits’ via SDRs.
The G20 sessions have ended without specific agreement. The conclusion of the G-20 meeting granted Internaciona Monetary Fund (IMF) the ‘possibility’ of expanding its resources “without limits”. “I leave here with a permit to expand my resources without ground, without shelter, without limits. The G-20 members have told us they will do everything possible so …