Another great report from the Swiss Wealth Management team re affirming many of the allocations and trades of our own in recent weeks. Equities stretched aside from large caps with significant EM exposures. Good call i believe although i think the over valuation can extend here further.(More tech tomorrow on this near term issue). WTI …
Continue reading “CS-Weekly Wealth Management Allocations – 25th Oct13”
BarCap near term analysis. Taking US$ continuation vs the Cad as one example and using the WTI weakness to justify its entry. If they are wrong on WTI they will be very wrong on the usdcad which implies a reversal and ie direction and trend on the pair. I’d be curious to ask them how …
No focus on price by the team here. A mix of other tech indicators and fundamental comments which is actually quite refreshing and useful working alongside the price tech work of the other teams. The eurusd strength is a head wind the euro area cannot with stand. The team using it as a signal that …
The usual weekly technical report from CommerzB re the commodity fx pairs. The tech charts show the significance of this area for the usdcad. If the USD can get a bid she would invalidate the fairly bullish medium term chart for the cad. A breakdown for the US$ through the 200 dma would likely be …
Continue reading “CommerzB – Commodity FX Weekly Technical Analysis – 23Oct13”
The usual weekly technical report from SC. They have turned bullish the eurusd pair up to 1.40 mirroring the jpm shift. Its plain to see that if we could get above the 1.40 level in the coming weeks it would be a game changer for the Dollar basket with all the asset implications this would …
Continue reading “SChartered – FX Weekly Technical Analysis – 21-Oct13”
A great report. The market breadth issue is meaningful and as the guys only comment on the technical I’d just make the point that this is fully explained by the shift back down in US fixed income rates in the last 4 weeks. The ten year today has slipped back down to 2.5% and this …
This is what is so interesting at this point in proceedings. Many large participants are forecasting a continuation of the cyclical commodity bear and effectively the ending of the commodity super cycle. Fundamental demand and supply wise they could be correct but demand and supply do not drive price moves of commodity instruments any more. …
Continue reading “CS-Commodities 22nd Oct 13 & BarCap – China Commodities Oct 21st 13”
Here a couple of reports from the two widely respected, though very different, hedge funds. Greenlight Capital’s performance record, over the last decade or so, puts her in the upper quartile of the upper quartile. David Einhorn its ceo updates on views, performance and allocations. Greenlight-Q3-2013 Hinde Capital are the specialist bullion focused hedge fund. …
A nice roundup just released from the Swiss team. CS-MarcoStrat-21-10-13 Rich
Raising the forecast for the eurusd pair to the 1.40 level note! From a purely trading perspective this would be very meaningful for all sorts of instruments. Note as well the short GBP recommendation vs the USD target 1.435, make or break near term level at 1.6175. In light of the Eurusd targets this implies …
Interesting comment and views from CS wealth management. Their tech team picking up something noted and allocated against a week or so on the forum pages ie the “Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index with strong technical momentum” contrary to UBS expectation. Long high yield junk, which was another theme from the forum allocations a week …
The latest fx report from JP below. They remain fairly US$ neutral to bullish. Forecasts for major pairs for euro to weaken to 1.33 or so. JPY to decline to the 103 level vs US$ and the pound to come off a little. The dollar basket to hold this level. JPM-fx-tech-18-10-13 (From a near term …