Seymour Equity have produced an outstanding report here. The attached document cuts to the core of the macro and cyclical issues facing the various asset classes. Its makes extensive use of the Kondratieff long wave theories and explains these for us. This is useful for those new to these theories. (Its worthy of note that Dr …
Continue reading “Seymour’s Equity Research – “Inflationary Deflation” Report”
Wells provide us the first 2013 fundamental projection report. Many more will follow of course and I’ll try and post up as many of these as I can to see what themes emerge. The Wells report is a US centric report, to my mind. I pick this single chart out from the report. This is …
Continue reading “WF Securities 2013 Fundamental Economic Forecast – “The New Normal””
The German team have worked themselves to a bullish technical view over the last few months. For them the price supports have proven themselves again and again. So long as supports continue to hold, they predict higher prices and an attempt at key resistances shortly. For my own book, I’m continuing to run my own …
Continue reading “Weekly Bullion Technical Comments – “Gold & Silver Bullish Short and Medium Term””
Another great macro technical report from the Swiss team. There is a lot of detail in the report from regional index comment to sector comment to commodity comments. Its a full report which i find hard to disagree with. The cyclical story is unfolding. Fundamentally it remains unproven for the moment but technically there is …
SC stick to the same themes they have held for the last year now. Namely over weight high yield equities and FI and under weight cash, money market funds. They like oil and gold for the geo political hedges they provide. I also include their fx round up and forward looking which is released today. …
Continue reading “Weekly Market Roundup – “Over Weight High Yield Equities, Under Weight Cash””
Here the German team stick to their medium term bullish call on the bullion so long as the November lows are not beaten. BullionWeeklyTechnicals04122012 Their short term view on gold has gone neutral but not on silver where they remain bullish on both timescales. I increased allocations to both metals though more so on silver …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Bullion Comments – ‘Gold Still Bullish Above 1672’”
The Swiss team remain bullish and pro risk. Near term they forecast these overbought conditions to be worked off a little before new highs are achieved. They remain true to their buy their cyclical forecasts though admit that these themes have disappointed thus far. They pick out the Shanghai and the gold miners are being …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – Near Term Overbought But New Highs For Q1 2013.”
The German team have turned decidedly bullish on the bullion. And are also forecasting a lower gold silver ratio ie relatively more bullish silver than gold. Both instruments are stretching their ratios to their industrial peers of copper and oil. This isn’t necessarily bearish but it is something to keep a watch on as an …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Bullion Comments – “Another Test of 1800 Highly Likely””
Another solid report from the swiss team. They acknowledge the correction has “expanded” but they stick to their bullish call that this is a correction and rotation rather than the ending of the 2009 bull market. On the plus side the seasonals are good from here and many sectors remain constructive including many European markets. …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “Oversold But (SP500) 1320 Possible to the Downside””
SC sticking to their defensive yielding blue chip equities theme. Buy the dips is their view with 1370 and 1345 buying zones in their opinion. Fund flows to fixed income and money market funds as well as the level of bearishness in the market leads me to mirror their view at present. I’m out of …
I’d like them to explain themselves a little more than they have done in the past but we have to hand it to the German team they have “nailed” the bullion weakness in recent months. Only the false break to the upside made the question their call and this questioning lasted only a week or …
Continue reading “Weekly Bullion Technical Comments – “Short Term Bearish, Medium Term Bearish””
An excellent report from the Swiss team. They correctly, in my opinion, highlight the consequences of the near term price supports giving way. “A daily close below 1395 (stop loss for tactical longs) would be, at least on the short-term basis, a game changer, suggesting more weakness into mid-November towards 1378/1370”. There remain lots of …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “A Break of S&P 1428 Outright bullish””