The probable scenario of a multi week rebound appears to be play here and the 2008 melt down scenario thankfully avoided. I’m traveling unfortunately so i leave the analysis to the reports. Ill add comment in a few days but in hindsight my own book’s timing is so far so good on both sides of …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactical Low Forming” 26th Jan16″
The Swiss team have issued a Technical Alert as markets have moved so quickly in the last 2 weeks. With standing a bounce to 2100 Sp500, they have confirmed a bear market and therefore the probability moves to no new higher highs for the sp500 on this secular bull market. (Effectively this mirror’s JP’s call …
The negative sentiment high momentum failure of Xmas rally has continued so that we are now at some key levels across many asset markets inc currencies and commodities and equities. Momentum is sufficiently strong and leverage has been sufficiently high that stop hunting can certainly occur here but we are over extended and sentiment is …
As things are moving so fast here as we sweep through the 1980 support today on the Sp500 I want to bring you a few more 2016 Outlook technical updates. First up, today, Fitzpatrick’s latest comments. When he released this the support Sp500 was holding but for now its quickly fallen over and as his …
Continue reading “Interim 2016 Technical Analysis Updates – 7th Jan16”
Welcome to the first post for the 2016 year and I can’t remember starting a year to so much volatility and uncertainty. There is so much to comment on inside the following outlook but this to come. Without delay I want to bring you the technical “Swiss teams” outlook for 2016 and beyond which is …
The Fed’s raise in interest rates well flagged and coming in at the full 25 basis points level. Supportive for the US$ and therefore the Euro equity rally into the year end, at least. Levels wise the Eurostoxx 50 level of 32 played out perfectly to the script thus far. The GBPUSD also played out …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Equities Trading Low in Place” 16th Dec15″
Guys I’m traveling so a quick update here with more to follow later today. Here the Swiss team’s latest: wklytech-8-12-15 Here GS: gstech-7-12-15 3200 level on the eurostoxx 50 a fairly important pre xmas level. Draghi’s disappointing announcement leading to a reversal of the euro carry trade, for now. Its a perfect market event with …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Consolidating” 9th Dec15 V3″
Some interesting price feedback from FX here aside the equity rally has continued. Although the US$ is continuing to make good strength vs sterling and the euro she has scored failure patterns vs several currencies inc the AUD and SGD, CAD and others. This could be a meaningful indicator that the US$’s strength could take …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Pre Xmas Rally Pullback” 24th Nov15 V2″
We have yet more soothing sounds from Central banks and asset markets appear to be preparing for the usual Christmas rally. In spite of the remaining technical issues cash is a dangerous asset in this world of understated inflation and persistently attentive central banks. It was right to go long on the lows of a …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Buy Weakness” 18th Nov15″
Some good reports this week with much discussion on the macro significance of the data and instrument movements. Breakouts by rates and US$ index, breakdown defensive utilities. Fitzpatrick commenting that the inflation benign tailwinds from lower oil prices is likely behind us setting up for a cyclical rally attempt vs defensive issues. As always monetary …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “US Yields Breaking Out” 11th Nov15″
I’m traveling again so apologies for the delaying in issuing. This has been a nose bleeding retrace for dm equity markets. S&P close to making her prior highs. Nas100 new highs. From an allocation perspective, whatever the allocation be whether currencies, pms, bonds or commodities confusion reigns here. Usually confusion preempts a trend change, in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Still Overbought & Vulnerable” 04th Nov15 v2″
The ECB and then the BOC certainly helped equity markets over come some key resistances. The Euro was dumped propelling European equities into breakouts of their recent down trends. Participants were forced to short cover and any late to the bear camp have been “rolled over”. Its worth noting that overall putcall ratios are nearly …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Still Overbought” 27th Oct15″