Category Archives: Markets

Bullion Weekly Technical Comments – “Near Term Consolidation”

Bullion sentiment, already in the doldrums has managed to sink even lower following the recent new collapse in the asset class. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/gold-trade-most-bearish-since-10-as-fed-spurs-drop-commodities.htm The latest report from the commitment of traders will make interesting reading later today as will the JPM physical position, no doubt. But even the sentiment is now so low I would guess …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “Too late to buy but also too early to sell, on a broader base”.

Its been a couple of weeks since posting here due to holidays. Therefore its a double bill set of reports from the Swiss team as follows. First up for the Swiss team we must say congratulations as they have again won this year’s Extel survey as best European technical report. Congratulations to the guys. Compared …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “Corrective Trading Low This Week – Rally To Restest Highs “

Here without more delay the Swiss team’s latest outstanding tech report. I’m under time pressure here so a review of this briefing tomorrow afternoon. I can say briefly that their report re-confirms my own independent tech analysis here and now. The HGX & lumber tops are important and part of the evidence that this ‘recovery’ …

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Sunday Reflection & Analysis Of The Near Term Equity Bear Technical Case..

Hey Guys, I trust you are all having a hugely productive and or relaxing Sunday. Volatility has been stepping up across asset markets in the last few weeks. From fixed income to equities to commodities volatility is increasing here so its correct to take a step back and double check where we are. Its the …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “S&P500 Consolidating but Final Top Still Missing”

The Swiss team put in a solid report below. Across multiple instruments and markets we have choppy conditions that signify distribution rather than meaningful tops and bottoms for the moment. “Again, there is no top without distribution and/or a top formation, and as the May 22nd top was a high momentum top, we have neither …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “Materials Breakout & Buy Bullion in next 5 to 10 Trading Sessions”

The Swiss team have re-grouped and come back fighting.  They didn’t get the pull back their models suggested. It has taken a month or so for them to really digest/accept this and re-set. We all learn by the rod here that you can’t get stubborn on these things. We are all paid on price and …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “5% to 8% correction into June/July but a change to our cyclical road map”

We have for several weeks discussed, on the forum pages as well as editor comments, that the technical report produced by our Swiss colleagues had got their near term calls wrong.  That, instead, the US equity markets displayed more technical strength than they had accounted for but this didn’t sit neatly with their cyclical model.  …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “SPX Overshooting 1610, Cyclicals Outperforming”

Please find the Swiss team’s latest weekly technical market comments below. It was becoming clear last week that the bear case had weakened. US markets have indeed made new record highs and market breadth has improved which the Swiss team are now acknowledging. Issues like the Russell2000 joining, as well as the semi conductors, extensions …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “Bounce Stronger Than Expected But Distributive”

Ok, the Swiss team’s latest insightful technical comments below. As a summary they are sticking to their call that this remains distributive. A key plank of their argument is that until we get a rotation into cyclicals and away from defensives the theme remains distribution. This is a classic analysis and is historically correct. Cyclicals …

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Macro Economic Update – “Another Spring Another Slow Down”

I attach the WF economic update below. We have growth with the US GDP coming in at 2.5% today for Q1, below consensus but in a world awash with slow, or negative – Europe,  growth a positive reading is something at least. German pmi came in weak again and the UK managed to score a …

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Bullion Weekly Technical Comments – “Near term rebound in speculative positioning”

No report this week from Commerz so i’ve posted up GS’s latest take on the bullion. In summary, they are long and medium term bearish on the asset class. They sight rising interest rates, low inflation and an improving US fiscal picture to cap any short term bounces in the bullion. Near term they are …

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Weekly Technical Comments – “Short-Term Bounce Before More Weakness”

Below the latest Swiss team’s comments on the major market indexes from across the globe. Short term issues remain as were. On the short term, we have a bounce  which is an opportunity for adding to hedges. Euro indexes have having been more over sold have enjoyed a higher bounce than the US sectors, thus …

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