We all hopefully fully understand the difference between the fundamental nos and technical trading issues. In my opinion both elements are important to build an effective multi asset, multi fx investment and trading strategy. Anything less is to subject yourself to immense risk and therefore swings in returns. Happy to expand this discussion in the …
Category Archives: Markets
Buy Stocks – ‘Intermediate Low – Buy Weakness’ UBS Update
UBS are of the view that the low is likely in for this leg of the cyclical bear. They do leave the door open to a retest of the lows of this leg in the next week or so but recommend any such move as a ‘buying opportunity’. October rebound scenario. Sectors etc are in …
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The EFSF Monster to be ‘Monetarily Super Charged’ via Debt (Inc BIS USD/Euro Credit, Update)
Europe is at her inflection point. Germany must approve super charging the EFSF. She must sanction turning on the monetary monster created May 9th 2010. We have explained and investigated the rise of the euro bond through the EFSF before here: http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/eurozone-greece-statement/ The EFSF is a new debt issuing entity. Her ‘capital’ is simply debt …
Dr Marc Faber Succinctly Summarizes on Reuters.. 22nd Sept
Dr Faber’s track record is really something. Here on Reuters from the 22nd summing up the history and forward perspectives perfectly for us. “Globally something is awfully wrong”. http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWASIA&cid=265773&shareToken=MzpkMzJjMDcxNi03YTcyLTQ5YzAtYWEyZC05ZWY4Y2MyZGFiMjU%3D&start=0&end=303 “I think the US dollar will continue to strengthen”. “Meaningful slowdown in the Chinese economy coming. Will it collapse or slow down is a different issue. …
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30 Year Treasuries at 3% Yield – Fed ‘Twists’ & Targets the Long End
No expansion of the balance sheet. The Fed to: 1) Roll over expiring short term treasuries on to long term treasuries 2) To actively sell $400bn of short end treasuries and buy longer dated treasuries 3) To roll over mortgage back securities that the fed holds on her balance sheet to push mortgage rates lower. …
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UBS Technical Update – Cyclical Bear in Motion – Interim Final Leg Down in Next 2 weeks..
Of course its all probabilities. The Nasdaq is in breakout to the upside. The UBS technical team are sticking to their bearish forecast of the final interim lows to occur at lower levels. A move above 1230 would negate the UBS view.. I cited 1210 SP500 which we are still struggling with. Lets see.. Rich …
DX/Asset Prices – Inverse Correlation Breakdown – Opportunity or Threat?
Its been “the” inverse correlation which has driven black box trading systems, hedge strategies, risk on and risk management trading systems of the last few years. Very simply as the dollar index declined asset prices rose, especially those assets priced in USDs ie commodities. Every correlation and inverse correlation must have some logical basis to …
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UBS – Weekly Technical “Equity Capitulation – Entering Mature stage of the Bear Leg”.
UBS aiming for 1020 as the possible downside target for sp500. In spite of the bearish call “don’t sell” is the UBS call ie simply a cyclical bear within the secular bull.. which mirrors my own view given the monetary ‘strategy’ which will be employed. (ie MONEY PRINTING). The UBS view, in summary, is that …
UBS Technical Update – Continuation of Cyclical Bear, Near Term key Level SP500 1230, DX to rise.
UBS-Weekly06-09 A pretty bearish report with no change to the sell the bounces view. A likely top for gold and tactical lows for equities coming end sept. Asian in process of making ‘final leg down’ before rejoining secular bull. Re Asia – “In the next 2 to 3 weeks we would prepare to start buying …
Switzerland CHF – Another Store of Value Destroyed by Central Bankers – SNB Balance Sheet Expansion – ‘Unlimited’. Pegs to the Euro
The Swiss Central Bank has declared an “unlimited” expansion of her balance sheet to prevent continued appreciation of the chf. The euro and yen surged 10% at times this am vs the chf as the Swiss Bank sold newly printed CHF’s and purchased Euro Usds, GBPs, Yen, adding them to her hugely bloated balance sheet. …
“Progressive” Socialist Victory in German State Elections..
The big losers on Sunday’s state German Elections were the conservative CDU and business friendly FDP. The big winners were the center left SPD, the far left party and the green party. As before, with center left and far left parties gaining share of the votes in germany you have to ask whether this vote …
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Gold Breaks Out Again Friday.. New All Time Historic Euro, GBP, BRL, MXN, SEK highs..
Gold had a very strong close into Friday challenging her USD all time highs with the equity indexes a long way from their recent lows. For those that measure things in pounds, euros, Mexican pesos, Brazilian Reals and Swedish Krones gold made fresh all time historic highs on friday. As usual almost totally unreported by …