Currently on a historic annual volatility of 14% vs the mean this is low. FX has been quiet of late but if the major FX pairs start to see volatility and the Dollar index falls through this key level commodity index volatility will exponentially increase. An asymmetric trade to play off the low historic (below …
Continue reading “Commodity Index Volatility – GSG Index 2008 – 2013”
EurUsd defines the dollar basket and today some major moves occurred. The pair help to define many instruments across world markets so what happens here is important. The euro is threatening to end her multi year cyclical bear vs the usd. Fundamentally its hard to point to the rational for this price move but hopefully …
Continue reading “Technical Trading Chart EURUSD – 17th Oct 13”
I haven’t seen participants so confused by the fx markets for many years. Everyone is saying something different and is having to reverse positions and stance every few weeks or so. Active fx traders are starting to be cut up by the chop. I want to say that historically when price chops up like this …
Continue reading “CommerzB – Wkly Technical Analysis of Major Asset Markets – 16th Oct 2013”
JP coming out bullish equity. Here their major picks and recommendations. JPMequitystrategy-15-10-13 Rich
The usual outstanding tech report from SC re the major FX pairs. SC-FXwklytech-15-10-13 Cheers Rich
SG-FX-Tech-15-10-13 Some nice trade ideas and tech charts from SG. Watch the usdjpy would be my suggestion. If we get resolution she hasĀ a decent upside but the reverse could also play out if the political leaders fumble this. Rich
CS-Commodities-15-10-13
Some Macro Thoughts-oct13 I want to say one important thing in addition on this issue. There appears some confusion in the web stratosphere on one key metric around this subject. The positive correlation between money velocity and interest rates. Some observers haveĀ pointed to the historic correlation between the two as being supportive …
Continue reading “Some Macro Thoughts – US$ Money Velocity, Inflation & Taxes Oct 13”
An interesting report tracking through the major sectors via their seasonal historic trading patterns. Recall the money velocity nos (ie how low they are at present), housing market performance potentially feeding into the housing ATM phenomena soon and the retail and consumer staples sectors, as one example. Its a thought provoking report. Thackray-Oct2013
Here a great set of reports from JPM. First up their US equity strat inc analysis & next up their European recommendations and analysis. A couple of great reports. Hopefully regulars, with a large thank you to “AAwork” JP-US-Equity-11Oct13 JPM-EurEquityStrat-11-oct13 All the best Rich
An excellent report combining macro and tech. Some of the pairs like the usdjpy could see a trend emerge from the ongoing wedge that needs resolution. With the BOJ doubling Japanese money supply in the next 12 months my trading bias remains short the jpy. I’ve been putting on and off that trade as events …
SBank have a reputation to keep in the commodities space. Their latest quarterly is pretty bearish. The secular commodities bull is being called into question here with the 2011 highs mostly lower than their 2007 highs and the cyclical continuation running deeper and longer than most commodity participants anticipated. There is nothing on the horizon …