I’m traveling again. Full regular update tomorrow but here the Swiss team’s latest in the mean time. wklytech-24-2-15 (Updating as i travel). Here Fitzpatrick cb-tech-21-2-15 And an update on the oil trade: cb-oil2; And here some nice longer range work on where we are in the cycle: cyclemap-20-2-15 And here Danske on rates: danse-rates More …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Gold Near To Bottom” 24th Feb14 v3″
In spite of world growth slowing dramatically and US Corporates struggling with the resurgent US$ her equity markets appear to have sufficient strength to avoid a correction. Sectors wise US housing is leading the charge making consistent higher highs. Technology and Biotech within this are also in breakout and strongly. The market breadth of the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “US Bull Intact” 18th Feb15 V2″
Investing and trading is only and always about probabilities. The probability of a severe correction in global equity markets had a window to occur. The probability for markets to take this window is passing as resistances are overcome and capital sustains her march out of cash and into assets. Central banks are determined to flush …
Equity markets are marching onward again it seems with a renewal of the bull trend across many world indexes. German equities are on fire to the upside with Japan threatening a breakout and Singapore already in breakout in in spite of the weakness across the em data. On the macro front, we have a lot …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2064 Key Res” 10th Feb15 v2″
European equities have a strong monetary tailwind for now. Unlike the Yen and US$ quantitative move the euro has debased prior to the commencement of the euro OMT program which commences in March. This effectively creates an even warmer tailwind to euro equities especially exporters though from a macro perspective how long this can sustain …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bullion Buy The Dips” 3rd Feb15″
Another week of volatility sustains. It was a historic week for news flow as the ECB finally pressed the OMT button. Not a collective quantitative OMT action but performed via the NCBs (National Central Banks). If the devil is in the detail of these sort of policy announcements this was the certainly the detail. In …
Its been a blisteringly positive start to the year if you were short euros and long assets. Volatility remains at very elevated levels and trends are long with very few corrections across asset markets. Leverage remains at record levels and many instrument trade levels are at record level extremes. Ie long US$ positions. None of …
Continue reading “Technical FX Update – “Beware the Euro Bounce” 23rd Jan14″
Its been an extremely busy start to the year with volatility staying high across most asset classes. FX and the PMs have stepped up a gear. The US$ bull market has been truly impressive. As impressive as the euro’s bear market. The SNB’s decision has thrown risk management into total confusion as historic volatility in …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Distribution Above 1972” 21st Jan15″
Its that time of the week again. We had a high momentum, reasonable volume given a normally quiet period, sell off for equities from trading day 1 2015. The technical issues are well flagged but price pattern wise having achieved a very recent higher high on many of the major indexes and sector indexes the …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis Update v2 – 13th Jan15”
I believe we have started the year as we will likely go on. 2015 will likely be the year of step change in volatility. Before we turn to 2015 projections and technical considerations lets for a moment reflect on 2014 2014 was the year of the US$s return.The US$ strength played havoc with performance numbers …
Its Boxing day so i’m not providing a full release here for a few days yet. I will release a 2014 retrospect and look ahead to 2015 pre the calender end of year but let me enjoy this holiday for a few more days guys. Having said the above, I appreciate that it is …
Continue reading “Interim Boxing Day Technical Release – “Year Of The Sheep” 26th Dec14″
Apologies i’ve been traveling over the last few days again making yesterday’s update and comments impossible to achieve. Here are the latest tech reports. Ill be back with comments tomorrow. Here the Swiss team’s latest release. wklytech-16-12-14 And here BreamC: bc-tech-16-12-14 And here the GS Tech: gs-tech-16-12-14 And here the cs charts: cs-techcharts-13-12-14 And here …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Update – “SP500 1981 to 1950″ Before Dec Bounce” 17th Dec14″