Here the Swiss team’s weekly technical comments. They are expecting a large inter governmental qe3 event but weakness may extent into the fall of 2012 before a new significant bull leg in equities takes hold. They therefore discount, for now, the deflationary melt down scenario that some are pointing to. They do point out that …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – No Deflationary Meltdown”
Ahead of the Swiss team’s technical briefing some of my own thoughts here.. We are in a very difficult area of the trading chart here. Technically we remain massively oversold but with the bounces being very poorly supported long attempts have been beaten back and you are lucky to score positively on playing the “bounce”. …
Continue reading “Market Musings – Inflection Point For Risk On/Risk Off”
The Swiss team confirm the near term capitulation that we saw last week. They expect a bounce here lasting between 5 and 10 sessions. They recommend selling strength with S&P 1250 and even 1210 as cyclical targets. Its hard to disagree with their analysis on this occassion. Greek elections marked for the 17th June and …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “5 to 10 Session Bounce A Selling Opportunity””
I’ve been making the case for global equities since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Developed world equities have come a long way, more than doubling, since the 2009 lows but does this make them expensive here? Not in my and many other’s opinion (inc GS’s as below). The same recent positive gains cannot be said for …
The Swiss team’s latest technical report below. They are sticking their prior view of a topping process. 1340 as a team nerm target before a retest of the recent highs before a may-ish resumption of the cyclical bear. In my view we are likely for a setback here and now. I have no set view …
Im out of the may silvers i added a few weeks ago at 33.26. 33.26 is about where i entered a few weeks ago. I made some money on the day of the take down so overall im up but the whole experience has certainly left a bitter taste in the mouth. And so, here …
Weekly28-02 ‘it’s too late to buy but too early to sell or short the market’. Sums it up!
Ok, this week im going to cheat just a little by providing four charts.. The effect of providing four charts hints at my narrative behind the four but we are all grown ups here. I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions as to what is occuring here. Rich
Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for …
The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down. A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change) into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’”
The Swiss team sight the ‘momentum of the January bull leg is unsustainable. They also point out that, ‘a classic price top is still missing in any one of the major indexes’ so too early for selling or shorting. They believe any kind of near-term weakness as the beginning of a top building process that …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – Near Term Remains Overbought..”
Here we see the Dow cash which on Friday met her prior high set April 2011.. Its not a breakout yet on the dow cash but its very close now.. The wider S&P500 isn’t performing as well as the DOW for obvious reasons.. ie that large multinational cos are greatly prefered at present due to …
Continue reading “Chart Blitz – (A Purely Price Analysis)..”