We are stepping forward into a monetary inflationary environment. Historically these moments in history see periods of immense (and increasing) money velocity. Huge speculative nominal trends historically develop during these periods. For this reason I remind readers of one of the most insightful stories contained in Jess Livermore’s historic and very brilliant book “Reminisences …
Continue reading “The Story Of Old Mr Partridge “Reminisences of Stock Operator”.”
The Swiss team have done themselves proud once again. Words fail me. A superb analysis. Lets see if they can win the European technical team for 2013 as they did in 2012. To the report specifically. There is much to digest here. What I continue to admire about their approach is that it’s probability driven. …
Continue reading “2013 Technical Forecast, Cycles, Correlations, Inter Market Analysis & Comment..”
Here below a fundamental economic report providing an economic outlook on the Nordic region care of Nordea. The report makes clear the lower growth projections for Sweden and Denmark for 2013. Norway is set to expand more rapidly than 2012 and Sweden more slowly. Both events will each create interesting dilemmas for their central banks …
Seymour Equity have produced an outstanding report here. The attached document cuts to the core of the macro and cyclical issues facing the various asset classes. Its makes extensive use of the Kondratieff long wave theories and explains these for us. This is useful for those new to these theories. (Its worthy of note that Dr …
Continue reading “Seymour’s Equity Research – “Inflationary Deflation” Report”
Wells provide us the first 2013 fundamental projection report. Many more will follow of course and I’ll try and post up as many of these as I can to see what themes emerge. The Wells report is a US centric report, to my mind. I pick this single chart out from the report. This is …
Continue reading “WF Securities 2013 Fundamental Economic Forecast – “The New Normal””
SC stick to the same themes they have held for the last year now. Namely over weight high yield equities and FI and under weight cash, money market funds. They like oil and gold for the geo political hedges they provide. I also include their fx round up and forward looking which is released today. …
Continue reading “Weekly Market Roundup – “Over Weight High Yield Equities, Under Weight Cash””
I must say the more time I see the Swiss team tested the more i like their methodology. Their approach is current best practice and its worth has been tested over and over in the time we have been following them. To the report. An outstanding report once again. The only level i would question …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Comments – “Buy into Weakness S&P500 1395/1400””
Deutsche have released a very lucid and frank report on the global economy, precious metals and new global phenomena of ‘consumerism”. Their findings are unsurprising to the contributors of this website. Of more surprise is the fact that these views are becoming wide spread. Even the most optimistic of investment bank analyst teams is now …
Ive been following SC’s (high net worth private client) wealth management weekly report for a while. To my mind its been accurate and timely in its recommendations and insights. It nicely brings together the key fundamental and technical strands of world asset markets, monetary and fiscal policy all in one weekly report. The ECB’s unlimited …
Continue reading “Weekly Roundup – “ECB’s ‘Unlimited Action Changes the Risk Reward Dynamics””
From the 1970s until 2008, consumer debt has increased, almost unabated, year on year across the developed world. The UK, as just one developed world example, has seen consumer debt increase from 43% of GDP in 1973 to over a 100% of GDP in 2012. In the UK’s case, much of this consumer debt was …