The Swiss team continue to look for a shallow pull back in the major equity indexs. They are looking for a sector rotation from high beta stocks (ie copper miners) into low beta/defensive stock like utilities. They show a chart pattern of a potential utility breakout here and now. Also of note, having correctly turned …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis. Equities Overbought But HUI To Continue Breakout..”
The Swiss team have changed their stance a little. The recent strength providing evidence that the pull back, when it comes, will be shallow and not severe. From their technical perspective, they judge, this move will likely therefore run to the end of March or early April and score a higher high across the broad …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical View & Macro Comments, ‘Near Term Overbought’..”
The Swiss team continuing to be bearish. In boiling down the reasons for their view they sight three main reasons. Bearish divergence for the McClellan, AAII bullish sentiment survey and the OSX put call ratio at extremes. They use some sector rotation signals to re-call an interim mtop here for the spx etc. I’m where …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Analysis – Near Term Bearish..”
We have many instruments at resistances or supports.. We have had an excellent run and the loan data is coming through more positively for both the US and China. The YM or dow futures having enjoyed a near 20% run up from the Oct lows looking like she needs a breather if merely just to …
The Swiss team maintain their bearish stance. They are ignoring all the fundamental news re debt growth etc. Purely from the technicals they are calling a near term top. SP500 futures currently at 1290 so getting very close to their sell level. Techweekly10-01-12 As we sit here today it looks a bold call having many …
UBS near term bearish but predicting the cyclical bear bottom in 2012. I’m out of time to comment now but here attached the comprehensive technical report. Dont chase the market and a fake breakout is UBS’s nearterm call. All the best for now. Rich UBSTechnicalStrategy2012
Many bullish trending charts broke in the run up to xmas. But we have not experienced any dramatic falls that price watchers may have expected. Seasonals have done their magic trick of supporting prices and stabalized things. Of course central bankers and some slightly better economic data from the US has assisted. The DOW cash …
Continue reading “Santa Rally – End of Year ‘Window Dressing’ or more..?”
Ok, so where are we? In my opinion, the old trader’s line of ‘buy the rumour sell the news’ has been spot on. Seasonals have a part but they don’t drive the market. We are, therefore, in the process of the entire ‘risk on’ trend breaking. As a general technical and fundamental comment, rather than …
Continue reading “Portfolio Allocations & Markets.. The Multi Asset BEAR is Very Close Now..”
Weekly13-12 Rich
As we can see the technical picture is very weak. It looks as the though the technical breakout has failed, the uptrend defeated. We moved to oversold levels in reaction. We have recently had a sideways move to reset the technical oversold conditions. We are at a level whereby technicall selling could/should resume. The entire …
We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is …
Short term at over bought levels (and price resistances). UBS expects another few percentage points on the basis of the xmas rally before the cyclical bear resumes. In spite of the mildly bullish call UBS declares selling into strength the better move at this point – which, in my opinion, is the correct move due …
Continue reading “Weekly Technical Update.. (Inc Janjuah Interview)”