A few wider multi market macro reports from Commerz and CS.
And CS here
And some news just off the wires re the latest European PMIs.
“An index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry rose to a 29-month high of 51.5 from 51.3 in October”.
Presented as wonderful 29 month high news on the various news services.
Please let me remind that a reading of 50 indicates zero growth. 1 or 2 either side of the 50 is within statistical error as this is a ‘soft’ qualitative report based on interviews with purchasing managers. It is not driven by hard inventory data etc. So make of this what you will, but i wouldn’t take this data point too seriously in either direction.
Its simply part of the continuation of Europe in economic flat line. In spite of their government’s adding to their deficits perpetually year on year things are not improving in the euro zone. At best, the situation is stable. Though as public finances continue to deteriorate this economic “flat line” is being bought at a price, note! And that price is future consumption.
Credit continues to contract to the private sector in 2/3rds of Europe whilst it expands in Germany. Germany represents an ever growing share of European GDP. There is huge secular wealth and GDP shift occurring in the Eurozone. Divergence is the ever growing problem. Germany requires tighter monetary and fiscal conditions than her European neighbours and this, one day soon, will likely be the anvil that breaks European harmony.
This is not a market timing comment, note. In ‘dirty’ trading speak, the ‘crap’ often bounces the highest. The + beta is often the “crap”. Trading is very different to investment. Its important to in grain this to memory.
Successful trading and investing to all.
Rich