The EM markets badly under performed for 2013 here some reports from the JP team covering the year passed and the year ahead for EM and Asian markets from a macro and then dropping down into specific tactical picks.
Commercial property is a significant weighting of asset allocators. Note the rec from JP for Sun Hung Kai Properties and I include a special report on the Hong Kong property market.
And here a focus on Asian equities
And here their latest equity recs. Note the Baidu rec.
And here a specific on the Hong Kong commercial property market
And here Schroders outlook on commercial property. Specifically they pick up on the under valuation of Singapore and Hong Kong and sight a 12 to 15% target return (inc divis and capital appreciation in 2014).
My issue for 2014 on commercial property is around yields. What happens to rates will have clear implications for capital values. If rents can rise sufficiently due to a sustained economic improvement then yes capital values could rise even withstanding an increasing rate environment. Corporate bond yields as opposed to junk yields are closely tracking the UST so we watch with great interest the rate environment. Currency wise 2013 should hopefully provide some upside in terms of euro adjusting SGD and HK property returns. We must recall that we come off the back of a disastrous 2013 for both currencies vs the euro. The Reit markets in both domains lost capital value and the currencies lost near 10% vs the euro in 2013. Therefore its not a brave forecast to suggest a Euro or pound adjusted return of 12 to 15%. Measured in US$ its a harder forecast to make as the US$ looks likely to show yet more strength for 2014.
Many many more reports to follow in the next 24hrs.
Rich