FX Technical Strategy Update – MS,JP,Commerz,Nomura – 5th March14

We have the ECB with a seemingly important decision to make tomorrow. Their “OMT” hands may be tied but they have other options of course inc going negative on over night bank deposits as well as lowering official euro area interest rates still further. Growth remains anemic in the euro zone and French and Italian economies need support to avoid slipping into reverse gear again. Deflation remains a threat on aggregate for the zone. Germany by contrast looks the picture of health and does not need more stimulus. In spite of the perpetual inaction from the ECB and champion jaw boning it seems some stimulus type announcement is coming soon or later. For my own book I remain short the euro on this basis.

On a wider level we need some trends again to emerge here.

Here MS with their usual weekly FX run through:

ms-fxtech-28-2-14

Here Commerz from last week (though many levels remain) with their weekly:

Commerz-fxstrat-26-2-14

Here last friday’s JP technical strat report:

jp-fxtechstrat-28-2-14

And here JP’s latest from today technical strat update:

jp-fxtech-5-2-14

Here a trio of the latest tech trade entries and levels from Nomura:

nom-5-2-14-EURUSD1(2)

And here on the usdcad