Here a couple of the latest Fitzpatrick reports from Citi.
What I really admire about his reports is that he blends the technical and fundamental in a way few do. He is prepared to step beyond the near term correlations to offer what are near term contrarian macro bets that are in line with a reading of the fundamental news flow and trend. Ie he is long $, long bullion, long commodities ex ind metals as their is weak economic demand, etc, etc. Demand for commodities is not currently about economic demand, etc,etc.
Some of these views may sound rather familiar if you follow the forum pages. I don’t believe its an accident this correlation to my own view. I believe its has a strong foundation in economic history beyond near term correlations and furthermore than the technical trends and price are starting to reveal the grand macro multi instrument secular trend. What makes me even more interested here is that it is currently such a contrarian view in the market. Participants are not positioned for this sort of macro scenario. This makes it, assuming it is correct, a contested for sure and therefore volatile set of bets but also a hugely profitable one if correct and we get the timing is good.This plays into allocations and instruments to cover this sort of macro outcome.
Anyway, without delay here the reports from last week and this.
If I can try and add a bit of value it would that Fitzpatrick in these weeklies concerns himself with large macro and price moves. He is less useful for near term direction but in collaboration with the UBS reports its a great combination. In my view. Fitzpatrick completes some of the gaps in the UBS team’s work, is my comment. And the reverse also applies, of course.
Here the weekly:
Here the update:
Many thanks to the contributor for providing these!
All the best
Rich