Markets.. (finally)..

The joys of spanish internet have delayed the markets summary today.. apologies, beyond my control i’m afraid..

Asia calm over night again and shanghi looking almost healthy.. the big trend remains as was of course..

Technical view at:http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-thursday.htm

DM markets threatened that breakdown yesterday but as said it was all way too calm.. these markets want to go higher, at least for the moment.. that is the path of least resistance.. news events can, of course, spoil this directionally.. I have no crystal ball but the probability, for the moment remains higher not lower, imo.SP500 needs to break the weak near term down trend.. (choppy)..

YM ditto.. from 12450 onwards..

Oil has surged up again. Very choppy.. the UCO entry was good directionally simply extreme volatility knocking it out. Nothing correlated even as she went to extremes..  Almost all indexes rising nicely here.. Nasdaq out performing due to google in great part whose earnings are surging with very impressive cash flow generation. Citi results giving a nice bump to the finance sector which is very positive for the indexes over all as this sector has badly lagged of late. If finance gets a leg up new market highs become very likely indeed. Technically on the price action things are looking up.. Soybeans and Wheat good today with Sugar threatening all time highs.. Corn having moved since the USDA ‘bluff’ looks to be taken a breather today..

Against all of this bullish view is the dx (dollar index).. she is making a poor fist of it but there is some semblance of relative strength emerging, albeit very early days..

AUD struggling a little in the last few days, even vs the disasterous gbp.. the retail data from auz wasn’t liked and neither was the low loan growth. Personally i like the look of both.. Auz is walking a fine line between booming and a housing collapse.. With unemployment so low at 4.9%, savings rates surging and investment booming some lower retail and debt growth nos are a good thing, imo.. A nice soft landing for the Auz housing market is way preferable to another bubble. The BOA rate rise projections moved to november which is fine.. rates at 4.75% makes them positive rates and one of the highest in the g10. I’m encouraged by the Auz approach not discouraged.. Of course asset markets like consumer booms and bubble markets.. Australia is not playing this game at present hence participants sell assets a little desiring bubbles in stead. The BOA is doing pretty well imo.

Next market event is obama and the debt ceiling issues.. Like most market participants i can’t believe they won’t sort this out at the last minute in the usual political way.. simply the various palms need greasing, ie all the various lobby groups want a slice of the action etc.. When all the various groups make a deal the money will flow again and the debts will continue on up to feed the ever growing Washington army.

I noticed last week Washington house prices are rising in price, indeed ahead of almost every region of the states. This tells us a great deal of where money is. There is no short term limit to the size of the US government so long as monetary policy is unlimited and in government hands. Its really very straight forward this principle that so many still fail to grasp. If this were a financial instrument we would long ago called it the biggest bubble ever and a totally an unsustainable parabolic chart. One day it will explode with dire consequences for the US.Onwards down that road that Hayek referred to so eloquently. Rich

Deutsche Bank – Food Price Projections

Deutsche-Bank-Lower-Food-Prices-Not-in-Sight

Good to see Deutsche Bank finally mentioning currency debasement of the USD as a key driver of food prices.. You recall a year or so ago no reports mentioned currency debasement as a driver. At least research departments are playing catchup now. It seems few in the farming business now believe much the USDA say. As a recap, the USDA report a couple of weeks ago stunned the market by its huge corn acreage forecast and lower corn demand forecasts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/corn-falls-to-six-month-low-on-shocking-usda-supply-data-soybeans-gain.html

The USDA’s reports are statically more often wrong than right and normally significantly over optimistic. Corn has risen 15% from the post report lows with USDA credibility again in question.

‘Jim Riley, with Riley Trading in Brookston, IN, says the government numbers are inaccurate, I hate to say it but this report is a blatant lie. Riley especially questions the 84 million harvested acre projection in the Thursday USDA report. This number is higher than earlier USDA estimates, something he finds hard to believe in light of the late planting and poor planting conditions that have plagued much of the Corn Belt’. (Gary Truitt in Koenig Online).

‘Just this past week China stepped in and bought 540,000 metric tons of US corn for delivery later this year. This one week of purchases, well exceeds the 500,000 tons the USDA had estimated that Chinese would buy from the US during the entire year. My question is, when is the USDA going to stop listening to the Chinese propaganda, and stop playing these ridiculous games.  How is it that so many other people can conclude that China has a corn problem, but the USDA continues to buy into the Chinese rhetoric and talk that everything is fine?  This has me completely baffled.  There were several analyst including myself that have been saying since the beginning of 2011 that China would more than likely need to import at 5-7 million metric tons of corn this coming marketing year.  We are now finding out that even these numbers may be too conservative.  With all of the resources, money and funding, available to the USDA, I just can’t figure out how they missed this number in such a big way’.  (From Inside Futures magazine)

Rich

 

Markets

A very noteworthy 24hr period this..

Asia overnight fine.. small move south on average but nothing to write home about.. steady market reflecting the general mood at present if not the news flow.. lol..

Ben came out and poured some fuel on the fire of the longs.. The Bernake put is under the market. Any decent decline and Ben told us clearly he will print to keep asset prices high.. As soon as he said these magic words the market took off to the upside.. all asset markets across the world. The USD was uncerimoniously dumped immediately. Even the GBP jumped vs the USD, this is how bad the USD performed yesterday.

End of day some sellers came forward and took the main equity markets back down to where they started the day creating a clear shorting pattern. No instruments correlated with this pure equity move. Sure some instruments came off their highs but only the equity markets produced that clear pattern and nearly 100% retracement. A pure pattern trader would have sold this market as the pattern printed south. This is where pattern trading system fail.. imo..(below a short term chart of last 48hrs or so price action on dow/ym).

The price action in the prior 3 weeks has been sedate.. The longs were in control even as the market sold off. Again yesterday although price covered a long way in short time there was no contest and none of the bars where very significant.. it moved down in a very controlled way with no contest on a broad market instrument based up day. This made me cover my shorts rather than join the pattern and add more. The reverse in fact of what a price pattern trader should do.The price action informed me to doubt the pattern. So what did occur is a good question to ask? Imo, we got a big market reversal in the run up to this. We had a short squeeze move in the prior weeks to this. The short squeeze was hard and fast. The raiders went long and loaded up to quickly roll over the shorts. The shorts had to buy and added to the momentum up. A near straight line of approx 900 ticks (dow) was produced. The longs then wanted to bank their profits and they took the opportunity, having cleared the markets of shorts to off load, yesterday.

This is, imo, what occurred. The market is sort of even now.. the raid is over. The episode has demonstrated the weak short hand. The momentum in this market is still up in spite of all the bad news around. Very simply the negative interest rates and threat of yet more monetary easing and deficits is keeping participants from wanting to hold cash.. cash remains trash for the moment. It will do until participants are forced to leave their assets. When they do it will be unruly. The rush for the exist will be messy as it will be forced. We cannot know when this market sells off.. the data continues to worse and the central bankers continue to implement negative rates and offer more money printing. Leverage levels are rising, participants continue to add more debt to their trading. Its a crazy world but dont try and get ahead of price would be my comment. Hedge now and again on market weakness is wise but no fast moves betting against this market.. this bull market is intact for the moment.

USD looking for new all time lows. PMS looking for new all time highs. Silver could rejoin her parabolic move and is threatening to breakout of her recent range. Oil back to nearly 100usds nymex and brent looking for 120 again. This is in spite of the Saudi’s pumping more through July(ignoring opec) and the US and Europe releasing 60m bpd from strategic stores. (Note China is still adding to her strategic stores!).

Onwards we go..

 

DAVID EINHORN Q1 Letter to Investors – Greenlight Capital

One of the most successful long short hedge funds in recent years. David picks up on many of the themes we see.. qe, japan, us deficits etc..

Here his April 2011 q1 letter to shareholders. Ill try and bring you the Q2 when its released end of july.

The circus will come to Japan.. Several key figures have her on the radar.. its just a matter of time.. price must be our key indicator.. a few outliers with option calls long dated out of the money aren’t bad if you are desire a small BOJ printing position.

54457672-Green-Light-Capital-Q1-Letter

(In the last week or so David has dumped his entire$150m stake in yahoo for a loss. Yahoo losing a court case over some interests in their Chinese assets).

Markets

Asia recovered her composure overnight, didn’t quite provide a complete reversal of the prior day but on many markets, shanghi inc, price got close. (as the shanghi in a down trend this reversal isn’t too significant. Hangseng less impressive, 50% retrace).

We said yesterday the price action was ‘in control’ and that the longs were still owning this market. Asia provided another test yesterday but price did not break and we have the longs firmly in control still at present across dm equity markets. We have summer volume levels and ‘trapping season’ as BM calls it. Price can move around without too much contest within a 200 or so tick range here now. I maintain a 70% sort of hedge ratio at these levels.

The sp500 stocks above their 50dma is rising here and showing a breakout of the 10 month downtrend. She has done this before but if this breakout maintains this is a useful indicator that we have another leg up for stocks.. as hugely paradoxical as this all seems.

Other asset markets.. FX.. the dollar is a key one of course.. the dx (dollar basket) having broken out of the three month range to the upside yesterday has rejected and broken back into the range. Near term more weakness dx is likely therefore.. from failed moves come.. its not quite a failed move yet but its very likely to prove to be in which case the prior highs for equity are in line of sight.. Eurusd.. im expecting more euro weakness before strength.. we have a decent trend down in the short term and although a bounce (dx as above).. the chart shows weakness for the next few weeks. Imo.  GBPUSD pair.. a little bounce if she can muster it.. and then downward.. imo. The technical chart is showing the roll over.. this is inflationary for the uk economy.

As i say i read this merely that the forward raiding party are settled in. They have a position from which they want to add weight and attract others to the trade.. if the data worsens, dx strengthens etc.. the gbp is toast.. Clearly it may not occur.. it is early in this trend.. lets see.. im in the trade from the level marked.. we see.. a be is just fine.. ill come back if im knocked out.. i like the risk reward on this trade..

Oil markets.. stores and saudi’s pumping a total of 2m bpd over the may production.. and the net effect nymex still stubbornly high, in spite of the weakening data.. We have a big problem in energy, price is also confirming this. Technically wise.. short term, trading, (volume based) chart here:

She looks like she wants to test that 98 level again.. if she fails at this she may well be a nice trade looking for that 88 level.. i may take this.. keep you posted.. i want a nice high prob trade and a decent tested failure.. i won’t be quick off the trigger so the trade may pass me by.. that’s fine..Patience and capital preservation the key to making money imo.

Precious Metals – im watching, im liking.. gold breaking out to new all time highs even as the usd strengthened a little and in a seasonal black spot for gold. Its strong stuff. The only instrument making new all time highs in the market. Silver lagging stuck in her range but showing signs of life.. PMs remain the strongest charts in the markets for good reason of course that we all understand by now.. Lets see if this gold break out can continue and then how rapidly silver rejoins the party.. is silver and industrial or a monetary asset? Lets see..

Ill leave the rest for the forums.. that’s my quick run through.. Summer ‘trapping season’ or silly season.. so caution out there. All the best Rich

 

 

Markets

Ok, we have some action here..

Asia took a big tumble over night with the hangseng the big loser but all indexes falling nicely. Once again it was the end of the session that saw the big selling which is ominous i must say. The ‘amateurs open the day, the professionals end the day’ is the saying.. who knows but a strong sell at the end of the day is never a good omen. This is certain.

Europe has followed asia down. The levels i mentioned yesterday are already starting to come into play out of hours on the ym, es etc.. Oil, as predicted has seen that weakness and is looking once again for those channel trend line levels. (you have the charts, ill update the short term). FX wise i expected more euro weakness due to the technical issues i went through.. she is conforming to the technical script and is looking for those levels around 1.375 to the usd, etc.

More interestingly, do we have a battle yet in the equity markets..? The answer im afraid is a very resounding – NO.. We don’t.. the volume yesterday was not impressive. The price action lacked meaning.. ok the point move was impressive but it was achieved by sedate price action.. its as if the indexes were on Valium. It was very hard to trade the main, broad indexes yesterday and this is always an excellent indicator that participants are fully in control of events and their sanity and we are unlikely to get ‘real’ moves until this ‘sanity’ deserts them..

Today, on this basis, will be interesting.. We have a big move in Asia and China very much losing the battle vs inflation, her trade nos, etc.. Can Asia pull this market down? Its an interesting one which, imo, will only occur when participants are kicked very hard to accept that this is even possible.

For technical traders the price action has hit 42% retracement of the near vertical run up last 2 weeks. This is an acceptable retrace and from 12350 ym sept the tug of war should start  between the longs and shorts. The longs don’t want to see a complete reversal of the last 2 weeks retrace of, however confident they are feeling. Participants on both sides have some positions but the momentum is very much still with the longs in spite of the recent break of the 1 yr uptrend channel trend lines.

FX wise – the dx breaking her down trend is not assisting the longs of course. Italy is the latest news story doing the rounds. Ireland will have problems again very soon i’m sure. The Asians must be wondering when the debt disease that infected the developed world will ever end. In truth its simply getting worse especially in the euro zone as the ecb refuses to print and instead expands money supply through debt on debt through new (capital lite) borrowing entities like the EFSF that is guaranteed by Euro states.. This is printing by another name.. at least printing carries no interest, note! So although the euro model is not ‘printing’ which is good the solution of more debt is possibly even worse as this debt will eventually have to be monetized one way or another.

Given the above perhaps i should be more bearish than i am on the euro.. but there is a buyer.. you can see him coming forward quite regularly in the price action. Asia does not want a euro collapse so i would look for a level of 1.37 or so and take it, especially on a spike.. When the time comes it will be crucial to see what else is occurring in terms of correlating instruments, etc.

I’m watching, and have been short gbp vs the usd from 1.615 or so.. the trade is running.. i want a trend.. Sterling is in trouble.. no question.. remember i said i thought the forward party of the circus were setting up camp gbp vs usd.. they are indeed settled in, have a position and have no intension of being rolled over.. So, short term we may see some volatility on sterling.. If/when she breaks, she may break very hard as the circus main party comes to the trade.. lets watch this.. it will be very informative, interesting and hopefully lucrative. Fundamentally i can see an arguement that says safe heaven from euro.. but in reality at such severe negative rates.. (remember sterling has one of the highest inflation rates in the g10).. given this backdrop its hard for sterling to be a safe heaven.. very hard.. The concern is the arrival of the circus.. King is walking a very dangerous line.. imo..any mention of more qe and we will witness a massive sterling devaluation.

Commodity currencies are struggling.. i bought more auds on friday late to hold for the weekend.. i didnt like the look of her yesterday am so i lost them at the same price i paid.. i then lost a few more vs jpy.. i added some vs gbp.. I lost euros vs jpy on friday.. and very glad i did too.. jpy is once again maintaining her ‘safe heaven’ track record. This is greatly due to one man’s efforts. The BOJ govenor.. he refuses to take an inflation target. He writes on monetary issues and is a very combative person.. Japan’s government continues to spend more than she makes and her debts pile up.. japan is still in deflation. Japanese banks have remained a horrid stock. Japan is running out of runway though.. the interest on her debts mounts as her population ages and start to draw their pensions. The government will go bankrupt in the next few years as she becomes unable to sell her bonds to her domestic people.. the japanese yield is already at zero.. the banks cannot buy safe in the knowledge their assets cannot go down.. If the yield curve rises just a little the assets could become worthless.. Its a catch22 that will be resolved with the BOJ govenor being thrown out of office.. when we cannot know.. it is an event that must occur.. Options calls the only way to play this at present as simply no price indicators to give us any indication of the circus being here yet other than aud and cad forming higher lows on market weakness vs the jpy.

Commodity currencies vs the usd are fine at present.. they are weakening a little but not much thus far.. i expect more weakness in spite of the yield differential.. faber is worried on china and therefore australia.. he sites the aud housing market as being over heated.. the last quarters mortgage nos were released for australia last week.. the nos saw approx a 5% growth in loans.. This was strong.. I expect this to fuel a last consumer binge in Australia in fact.. I expect pretty good nos from Australia for the next 3 months due to this loan growth.. but i don’t expect this to sustain unless china and the usd remain strong which is looking unlikely.

Equities specifics.. i got out of some copper cos i had added on the weakness and banked.. inv & freeport.. i like them both but i do think ill be able to buy at cheaper prices. The yields are low.  Watch the mortgage reits in the US.. IMO.. NLY, ANH and MFA are my picks.. i hold all.. mfa has yet to pay her quarterly from memory.. these cos borrow at the short end to buy at the long end they then pay out all the profits on operations due to them being reits.. The securities they buy are government guaranteed. They cannot lose whilst short term interest rates remain low.. They will get killed eventually therefore but for the next 6 months or so i like them. The yields are enormous at present circa 12 to 14% etc..  As an outside bet.. i like Portugal telecom listed in the states.. The yield is immense. Over 50% of profits from South America. They will get killed in Portugal from regulation no doubt but the s.american operations will fill the void, imo and the yield is immense. Ill pick up more if/when i see the euro a little weaker and on renewed Portugal concerns. Not for widows and orphans..

Enough for now.. I’m still playing catch up post wise as the gap in posting for a week or so..
As a side comment, i hope people kept a few hedges in place.. easy to get caught there especially on a hard retrace-ment set of trading rules.. If you did get caught consider applying some rules to take account of these narrow, low volume trends.. we can expand on this in the forum..

All the very best
Rich

 

 

 

 

Andrew Maguire Interview Released – KWN

He knows the market inside out. The interview release was delayed but now live..

Watch price.. price must be our lead here..It could be really explosive if he is correct.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/7/11_Andrew_Maguire.html

I do hold paper futures, physical and miners in equity,etfs and option calls.

If he is right and the paper holders are forced to take cash the miners will explode upwards.

I have no trading leverage on the pms at present yet.

Evidence first.

As an addition to the above re instruments etc – I notice Gold in pounds and euros breaking out to fresh all time highs today.. And a low risk leveraged entry on Andrew’s opinion of an imminent silver spike up would be taking out of the money slv call options, near-ish dated. The Oct2011 40 call is priced at 1.25 or so at present as an example. The GDX option calls are another way to go given the low historical volatility. I hold both and have added a few slv oct calls strike 40 just in case Andrew is correct.

Until price confirms i cannot bet, in a meaningful way, on the scenario he outlines.

Lets see

Rich

Erste Gold Report – July 2011 – For Gold Bugs

Just another report that comes into the in tray.
What i find interesting here (aside from the content of the report) is that the finance sector are significant laggards to the pm bull run. There has been almost no finance participation in this run to date. In spite of the trend the percentage of funds invested in pms remains at historic lows vs the recent (recent here = last thirty years or so) run up in the world wide money supply. Recently, pms are starting to get more attention from the finance community. They can no longer be ignored, it seems.
The inflation trade is busy but the pm trade is not, is my observation. The more reports from finance houses like this one the greater the chance pms could see significant inflows of capital with the upside potential to price this infers. Silver is a very small physical market. I strongly maintain my stance to retain a core position and add leverage on price confirmation. Of course this is just my opinion and must not be understood as financial ‘advise’ in anyway.
This para from Erste Group. Report attached.
‘In the short term, the seasonality of the gold price seems to suggest the continuation of thesideways movement, followed by the strongest seasonal period in September. In the long runwe could see a future where rather than asking for the price of gold, people will muchmore often ask for the price in gold. Our next 12M target is USD 2,000. We believe thatthe parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us. This phase should take the gold price to our long-term target of at least USD 2,300 at the end of the cycle’.

http://www.erstegroup.com/

Rich

US Treasuries. who is buying?

Primary dealers have upped their purchases as foreign buying has declined. As the fed’s qe program provided a ready buyer the dealers could make a decent turn and underwrite the issuance. Risk free, easy money. But with the end of qe2 (sustained fed balance sheet however) the dealers may get squeezed out here. Certainly it will be interesting to see what occurs.

Excellent article from Zerohedge on the subject.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-plunge-foreign-interest-us-treasurys

The first test of the issue this week against a backdrop of China being unable to sell all the bonds she wanted to sell last week as posted.

Rich

Goldmans Commodity Watch 2H – 2011 pdf

From a few days ago, the Goldmans 2h view for commodities.

‘We reiterate our long trading recommendations for Brent crude oil, UK natural gas, copper, zinc and soybeans’.

59520474-Goldman-Sachs-Commodity-Watch-2H2011-Outlook-July-7-2011

Essentially bullish due to the supply demand imbalances but near term volatility and short term risks to the downside.

20% upside for the next 12 months is the summary with an over weight recommendation.

Rich

 

Markets (catchup)

 

Markets

 

So where are we here and now and where are likely to move to in the near term.

 

Asia over night was weak. Singapore, HangSeng, Nikkei down over night. No particular fireworks although the Hangseng showed the best chance of producing fireworks particularly at the end of the session.

 

I refer you to the very good technical analysis on the shanghi:

 

http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-friday.htm

 

DM equities are struggling again this am having recorded their best straight session gains for some time to Thursday.

 

Review of last few weeks

 

To take a step back, the up move came following a trend break on almost all indexes across the world. (The events leading to the break was hard fought at with much chop). When the move down came, as we said at the time, it was uninspiring clearly lacked real meaning in spite of key levels and trend lines being broken.

 

For technical traders, the recent bounce up has been very narrow and volume lite and successfully brought price very close to yoy highs again on what looks to be the perfect failed breakdown on the multi year trend up.

YM

But the move northward thus far has also been highly suspicious due to this lack of volume, flight and narrowness. Depending on your entry or hedge, it was right to wait to see how price reacted to the first signs of selling to see how robust or otherwise the move north is. (Only on a contest can we see how stubborn the longs are).

 

We got a test eventually on Thursday, after the 900 point move on the dow. It was another fast move with the result volatility is rising considerably across all asset markets. Purely on a technical basis, price pushed back northward in spite of the news to produce a strong close into Thursday evening. The diabolic jobs data pushed her back southwards on Friday..

 

Present

 

As we stand here now, there are cross currents on the near term direction.

 

In the very short term we have momentum to the south given Friday’s failure of the Thursday evening move to rejoin trend. Levels wise a move to 12350 to 12140 looks likely. The up move was too fast and too lite technically to sustain. Price needs a better foundation to really push onwards in a sustained way. We are also very close to the resistance of yoy highs in many markets. It is against the back drop of cash being trash. Participants want to believe in the recovery. This is very clear. They want to hold assets and take a yield. No one wants cash so only when they are ‘forced out’ of their positions will price really role over. The price action is confirming this thesis.

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/65045749@N04/5925754920/#/photos/65045749@N04/5925754920/lightbox/

 

I maintain my hedges. I may lose them if I see a decent contest between longs and shorts which convinces me the move north will sustain. The narrow, volume lite move in the last 10 days was unconvincing thus far although the ‘cash is trash’ issue in a negative yield environment is certainly encouraging participants to hold no matter how bad the data becomes it seems, hence sp500 relatively high pe ratios. In a negative rate world any yield and real asset becomes attractive but this produces highly volatile markets therefore.

http://www.multpl.com/

Like a pressure cooker I suspect the heat will gradually get worse until the lid blows off and we get a pressured move to the south. As it will be ‘pressured’ it will be extremely hard and fast the longer it is put off.
Of course renewed and reinvigorated monetary stimulus and expansion could come to the ‘rescue’ of equities though the unintended consequences for commodities and the usd would likely be disastrous.

 

FX wise..

 

All currencies (one or two aside) have negative yields. Participants are paid to borrow. There are great incentives to hold assets. Almost all currencies are trash and the race to the bottom continues on. The USD continues to win this race for the moment but as equity index trends broke the dx is threatening to break her recent yoy down trend.

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/65045749@N04/5925807522/#/photos/65045749@N04/5925807522/lightbox/

 

This recent strength is coming from all currencies commodity and dm alike.

 

Eurusd. The euro broke her 3 year down trend vs the usd at a time as the news flow on the euro was a disaster. I continue to read this as essentially positive euro but the price action recently has looked like she has failed to push on with lower highs and lower lows. 1.38 or so to the usd look likely in the near term.

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/65045749@N04/5925816754/#/photos/65045749@N04/5925816754/lightbox/

 

On some side issues I notice copx was nearly back to her highs, gold is close to break again. Oil I have commented technically on a post yesterday. Silver continues in her recent range.

 

This has been a weekly catch up post hence is longer and more complex than daily or so market updates. Ill try and comment in the next few days depending on the price action where ill widen the instruments covered.

 

No fast moves at present, evidence and patience to catch the trends has been the best way to generate returns yoy from my experience. There are plenty of headwinds, earnings season is with us. Lets see.

The price action will tells us where she desires to go and remains our best indicator.