Hi Guys, I trust all are well rested and back to the markets with renewed energy and focus. Hopefully all are enjoying the continuation of this setup in risk which started with new momentum early dec.
Its been a blistering start to the new year with all risk adding weight, the dollar debasing. The rally in risk has broadened nice to include the the commodities as copper leaps to new highs and precious metals start to join the party.
History rhymes of course and so price history wise we must remember the run up from 2003 to 2008 where all asset classes enjoyed the rally (less the US$) before setting up for the monster reversal that followed.
Before we cut to the markets and the various reports I want to talk again about MIFID II. On the 3rd of Jan 2018 the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MIFIDII) went live with companies implementing in different ways as regards to the distribution of their research reports.
I’m afraid UBS Switzerland have implemented in a fairly strict way under pressure from the EU.
“Dear client,
In January 2018, MIFID II will go live, and this will affect the technical analysis produced of UBS Investment Bank. Our product and services (please see attached presentation) are basically part of the UBS advisory offering. If, going forward you still want to have access to our technical analysis product, please note the following:
1) You as an institutional investor are OUT OF SCOPE of MIFID II.
Nothing will change for you in terms of accessibility to our publications. However, for having e-access to the UBS distribution platform (NEO) you need to be set up for NEO access. Please speak to your UBS sales contact, who will do this for you and send you a password. Otherwise, you will NOT have access to our publications as of January 2018!!
2) You as an institutional investor are IN SCOPE of MIFID II.
2.1) Your company has signed an agreement with UBS as a research partner.
Please make sure that within your company you are set up as a UBS research user with NEO e-access, otherwise you will NOT have access to our publications as of January 2018!!
2.2) Your company has NOT signed an agreement with UBS as a research partner
If you want to continue access to our product, please contact our team and we will discuss further actions’.
I’ve been in direct contact with Michael Riesner himself but it seems his hands are sadly tied by his compliance department.
Of course there are official channels and more unofficial channels. I can assure you all that Capsyn has several connections into UBS Group and the issue of access to this Technical research will be explored via all these vaarious channels. The conversations and requests are ongoing and I will update as soon as i have either the reports themselves or news. Patience please.
In the mean time, here CS latest Multi Market technical report:
And here Meisels with his 2018 Outlook:
http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Meisels110118.pdf
And here UBS Global with their 2018 report:
http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/UBS-2018-global-web-en.pdf
And here SC with their weekly mkts analysis:
And here RWA:
And here CB Wealth with their 2018 global Outlook:
And here Commerz Bank with their 2018 Commodities outlook:
CMZ-PreciousMetals_Outlook2018
On a personal front the lack of regulation in the crypto markets has meant a surge in the requirement for over the counter direct deals between sellers and buyers of the cryptos. The commissions for agents to put these buyers and sellers together are large but still less than what these exchanges would charge between the spread and their fees. I am therefore acting as an agent for large crypto deals until regulation of the exchanges closes this opportunity down. How long the window for arranging these deals remains to be seen but for now its proving to be a very lucrative side line to running my fund. If/when a whale deal closes I’ll update accordingly and drinks are on me.
I observe that the buyers of the cryptos are completely now polarized with very few in the middle wealth band. The ongoing fraud occurring is immense and as we struggle with the ever growing level of regulation across risk markets it continues to amaze me the way regulators stand aside as regards to crypto mkts. I suppose their will be a method to their madness and this is therefore orchestrated. Sure their ‘plan’ will soon become apparent.
I notice the BOE recently announced that they are likely to launch a regulated, block chained, crypto, sterling pegged, distributed digital currency shortly. You will be able to sort locally on your digital wallet and use on Amazon pay or Ipay, your facebook wallet etc. Crypto advocates will likely totally miss the slight of hand of difference between an unregulated limited block chained fx and the boe proposed version. Hopefully readers here are wise the monetary difference so i’ll say no more.
Distributed, fractional block chained, regulated gold and silver would be a very different proposition and I greatly suspect this will usher in the ultimate digital block chained last asset standing.
Block chain is a fascinating technology but its implementations need to be considered carefully across many perspectives. Inc total information control of all assets, their fractions, taxes, ipr protection, crime and many many other aspects. As a tip buy Vivendi and other ipr owners on dips. See Kodaks statement from this last week.
On the next update, next Wednesday evening, I’ll provide an over due multi asset tech view of my own.
Remember the long term historic correlations between assets, instruments and indicators. They will over time always play out. A prosperous 2018 to all.
As time waits for no one, onwards..
Rich