FX markets are once again the scene of extreme volatility which is feeding negatively into European stock prices. We have many cross winds here from technical non confirmations of the recent highs to currency confusion and increasing bond volatility. Ftse100 has dropped below her multi month uptrend line support which is a bearish and needs to reverse quickly here. US markets, by comparison, continue to display ultra low volatility.
Here the Swiss team’s latest
Many more reports to come.
Here the end of last week’s update from Fitzpatrick.
The Dow transports price issue noted last week but she’s moved even lower which historically an important signal.
And here GS:
They pretty much nailed the eurgbp trade on the near term target.
Here some macro trade recommendations from CS, inc the euro banks.
And an FX update from CS sticking with the US$ theme.
And here their global FX update broadening the trade targets:
And here bringing it all together an excellent update from RBC:
I hope you have locked in at least some of the year’s gains here. Or have option positions to cover the risks. This bull market is stalling. Capital has increasingly limited options on where to flow (still no correlations to gold working here, even today thursday by the way) that’s usually a good signal of volatility and confusion to come. The bull has not been dealt a hammer blow quite yet so its tighten up on levels, cut all leverage and hold a few puts to the downside for me. We see whats next a long slow summer would suit me just fine.
All the best
Rich