Weekly Technical Analysis – “October Falls” 30th Sept15 v2

The Swiss team are traveling so no comment from the guys and not much need for a comment and no levels and price action particularly demands comment for now.

Near term it looks like a bounce is in progress off some key supports for several equity markets lead by asia over night. This is the totally normal progression of a market in correction. This volatility makes entry with trend more tricky but its all very normal and shouldn’t get one confused on the bigger picture for as long as major levels sustain.

Recall price action wise we got the summer storm then we got a retrace. Recently we have a a new attempt lower to the support across many equity markets. This morning we have a bounce to wrong foot late entries but aside from that the major recent summer trend lower is intact, for now.

Sector wise some positive developments:

Possibly higher lows near term for leading sectors like sox and dow transports but lets see if this mornings price action holds or simply reverses yet again.

And some negative developments:

Lower lows through the August lows on housing, materials & construction, biotech and, on the major index side, Russel2000 and Sp600 small caps.

Some evidence of today’s bounce yesterday as here divergence on the near term. We got a lower low for price beneath the Aug lows whereas breadth showed a non confirm as there were fewer 52 week lows.

sp600 lows

It seems in spite of the generally good news re consumer consumption off the back of house price gains and building works the major indexes for these good news stories are showing the opposite. US finance BTX is just holding above key supports here and now.

Nothing as yet to make me doubt further falls into October.

Here Fitzpatrick on the issues:

cb-tech

More coming..

Here SC on the global macro allocations:

sc-gm-26-9-15

And fx wise MS

ms-fxtech-27-9-15

And here JP

jp-globalstrat-29-9-15

jp-ma-allocations-q4-15

Rich